U.S. winter wheat drought expected to worsen
Drought is likely to persist or worsen in the winter wheat growing regions of the United States this winter, according to one of the world’s premier weather forecasting services.
A slowly developing La Nina will influence U.S. weather patterns in the December to February period, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Winter Outlook.
It is predicting wetter-than-average conditions for the northern tier of the U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region.
However, drier-than-average conditions are forecast for the south, including large portions of the key winter wheat producing area of the country.
“La Nina conditions are expected to develop later this fall and typically lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier,” NOAA stated in a news release.
As a result, NOAA expects drought conditions to “persist and worsen” across the central and southern U.S. Plains.
“Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,” said Brian Pugh, operation drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief.”
Justin Gilpin, chief executive officer of Kansas Wheat, said NOAA’s long-range forecast is disconcerting given what transpired this fall in an area between Texas and South Dakota.
“We have probably experienced one of the direst periods in winter wheat planting that we’ve had in over a decade,” he said.
Farmers have been “dusting in” their wheat in hopes of receiving some winter precipitation.
“When you see a forecast like that, it’s certainly concerning,” he said.
Some growers in Kansas, eastern Colorado and Nebraska recently received six to 12 millimetres of rain, which was a blessing. However, it was the first measurable rainfall in more than a month.
The rest of the fall has been characterized by above average temperatures, strong winds and a lack of precipitation.
It made for a quick and easy harvest of the summer corn and soybean crops, but growers would have preferred a couple of rain delays.
Gilpin is interested in seeing what the U.S. Department of Agriculture says in its first crop condition report, which should be released sometime in the next few weeks.
“I have a feeling it’s going to reflect some spotty and thin stands,” he said.
Emergence has been poor and crops that were planted in September have been going backward.
He suspects growers in Kansas have cut back on winter wheat acres due to the combination of low commodity prices and dry conditions.
Gilpin said the start to this year is reminiscent of 2022 when growers planted into dry conditions and there was poor emergence of the crop.
That led to high abandonment rates come spring and the smallest winter wheat crop in the state since before 1970.
The current drought cycle has been hard on U.S. winter wheat growers, and if NOAA is right, no reprieve is on the horizon.
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