U.S.: USDA projects slight wheat crop rise in 2025 on higher yields, despite smaller acreage

The USDA says farmers will produce a little more wheat in 2025 than 2024.

Production for all types of wheat is seen 1.984 billion billion bushels, less than 1% larger than last year, with an improved national yield, now at 53.3 bushels per acre, expected to cancel out declines in planted and harvested area to 45.328 million and 37.241 million acres, respectively.

In 2024, all wheat production was 1.979 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.2 bushels per acre on planted area of 46.274 million acres and harvested area of 38.633 million acres.

The year-to-year difference is in a rise for winter wheat production against a dip in spring wheat.

U.S. winter wheat production is estimated at 1.402 billion bushels, rising 3% on the year, and spring wheat is projected at 496.76 million bushels, a drop of 9%, but with the second best average yield on record at 51.7 bushels per acre. The average yield for winter wheat is seen at 54.9 bushels per acre on planted area of 33.153 million acres and harvested area of 25.508 million acres, while planted area for spring wheat is at 9.99 million acres with harvested area of 9.61 million acres. By type, 2025 hard red winter production is pegged at 804.443 million bushels, with soft red winter at 352.916 million bushels and white winter at a combined 244.195 million bushels, while hard red spring wheat is seen at 458.347 million bushels, with white spring at a combined 38.413 million bushels.

For 2024, winter wheat production was 1.355 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.7 bushels per acre on planted area of 33.535 million acres and harvested area of 26.207 million acres, including 773.433 million bushels of HRW, 344.445 million bushels of SRW, and a combined 236.558 million bushels of WW. Spring wheat production last year was 544.21 million bushels with a record average yield of 52.4 bushels per acre on planted area of 10.675 million acres and harvested area of 10.39 million acres, including 504.757 million bushels of HRS and a combined 39.453 million bushels of WS.

The numbers are subject to change in the coming months.

The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates is scheduled for October 9^th, but would likely be delayed if the Federal Government shuts down.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 3.99 million bushels, compared to 4.76 million in 2024; Average Yield: 57 bushels per acre, compared to 56 a year ago; Planted Area: 110,000 acres, compared to 130,000 last year; Harvested Area: 70,000 acres, compared to 85,000 the year before

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 61.6 million bushels, compared to 60.2 million in 2024; Average Yield: RECORD 88 bushels per acre, compared to 86 a year ago; Planted Area: 780,000 acres, compared to 770,000 last year; Harvested Area: 700,000 acres, the same as the year before

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 21.36 million bushels, steady with 2024; Average Yield: 89 bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; Planted Area: 320,000 acres, compared to 310,000 last year; Harvested Area: 240,000 acres, the same as the year before

Kansas: Winter Wheat: 346.8 million bushels, compared to 307.45 million in 2024; Average Yield: 51 bushels per acre, compared to 43 a year ago; Planted Area: 7.3 million acres, compared to 7.6 million last year; Harvested Area: 6.8 million acres, compared to 7.15 million the year before

Kentucky: Winter Wheat: 26.73 million bushels, compared to 29.25 million in 2024; Average Yield: 81 bushels per acre, compared to 75 a year ago; Planted Area: 490,000 acres, compared to 560,000 last year; Harvested Area: 330,000 acres, compared to 390,000 the year before

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 44.1 million bushels, compared to 32.625 million in 2024; Average Yield: RECORD 90 bushels per acre, compared to 87 a year ago; Planted Area: 530,000 acres, compared to 400,000 last year; Harvested Area: 490,000 acres, compared to 375,000 the year before

Minnesota: Spring Wheat: 75.9 million bushels, compared to 80.83 million in 2024; Average Yield: RECORD 69 bushels per acre, compared to 68.5 a year ago; Planted Area: 1.15 million acres, compared to 1.22 million last year; Harvested Area: 1.1 million acres, compared to 1.18 million the year before

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 36.8 million bushels, compared to 36.375 million in 2024; Average Yield: RECORD 80 bushels per acre, compared to 75 a year ago; Planted Area: 640,000 acres, compared to 680,000 last year; Harvested Area: 460,000 acres, compared to 485,000 the year before

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 37.835 million bushels, compared to 47.84 million in 2024; Average Yield: 47 bushels per acre, compared to 82 a year ago; Planted Area: 950,000 acres, compared to 1 million last year; Harvested Area: 805,000 acres, compared to 920,000 the year before

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 45.58 million bushels, compared to 40.375 million in 2024; Average Yield: 86 bushels per acre, compared to 85 a year ago; Planted Area: 570,000 acres, compared to 530,000 last year; Harvested Area: 530,000 acres, compared to 475,000 the year before

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 31.5 million bushels, compared to 47.88 million in 2024; Average Yield: 50 bushels per acre, compared to 63 a year ago; Planted Area: 780,000 acres, compared to 860,000 last year; Harvested Area: 630,000 acres, compared to 760,000 the year before

Spring Wheat: 32.64 million bushels, compared to 31.115 million in 2024; Average Yield: 51 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a year ago; Planted Area: 680,000 acres, compared to 660,000 last year; Harvested Area: 640,000 acres, compared to 635,000 the year before

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 19.61 million bushels, compared to 24.375 million in 2024; Average Yield: 74 bushels per acre, compared to 75 a year ago; Planted Area: 345,000 acres, compared to 385,000 last year; Harvested Area: 265,000 acres, compared to 325,000 the year before

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 19 million bushels, compared to 18.04 million in 2024; Average Yield: 76 bushels per acre, compared to 82 a year ago; Planted Area: 300,000 acres, compared to 265,000 last year; Harvested Area: 250,000 acres, compared to 220,000 the year before

Tags: winter wheat, Production, wheat, yield, soft red winter wheat, Hard Red Winter-wheat, spring wheat, hard red spring wheat, harvested area, white spring wheat, USDA