Turkey’s olive oil exports plunge 53% despite expectations of a strong harvest

Turkey’s olive oil exports fell by 53% in January–September 2026 compared with the same period last year, reaching just 15.7 thsd tons. Export revenue declined by 48% to $82.1 mln. The main factors behind the drop were intensifying competition in the global market, high production costs and trade restrictions in importing countries. Overall, Turkey exported 87 thsd tons of olives and olive oil during the nine-month period, down 28% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, the country expects a significant increase in olive production in MY 2026/27. According to a preliminary forecast by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the olive harvest could rise by 56% to 3.8 mln tons, compared with 2.5 mln tons in the previous season. Actual olive oil production will depend on the volume of olives processed and their oil content. Large harvests are also expected in other Mediterranean countries, potentially putting additional pressure on global prices.

The export decline also affected other segments of Turkey’s olive industry. Black olive shipments decreased by 14% to 48.1 thsd tons in the first nine months of the year, while green olive exports fell by 19% to 14.4 thsd tons. Olive pomace oil exports dropped by 40% to 8.6 thsd tons. Total export revenue from olive products declined by 28% to $273 mln, reflecting the weakening position of Turkish producers in international markets.

To revive exports, industry representatives are calling for a revision of trade restrictions in key markets. Turkish exporters are seeking the removal of an additional 12.5% tariff in the US and an increase in the EU’s duty-free olive oil import quota from the current 100 tons to at least 60 thsd tons. Producers also hope to secure duty-free access to the UK market under future trade agreements.

Turkey has significantly lost ground in the global olive oil market in recent years. While the country exported around 150 thsd tons worth more than $700 mln in MY 2022/23, shipments fell to approximately 20 thsd tons valued at $105.7 mln in MY 2025/26. According to USDA forecasts, global olive oil production in MY 2026/27 is expected to reach around 3.3 mln tons, including 2.1 mln tons in the EU. Rising global supplies could further intensify competition and complicate the recovery of Turkish exports.

Tags: olive oil, Turkey, export