Turkey’s olive oil exports fall 53% despite expectations of a strong harvest

Turkey significantly reduced its olive oil exports in 2026 despite favorable production forecasts for the new season. In January–September, olive oil shipments to foreign markets fell by 53% year-on-year to 15.7 thsd tons. Export revenue declined by 48% to $82.1 mln. The main factors included intensifying international competition, high production costs and trade restrictions in key markets.

Meanwhile, Turkey expects a substantial increase in its olive harvest in the 2026/27 season. According to a preliminary estimate published in May by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), production could reach 3.8 mln tons, up 56% from 2.5 mln tons last year. These figures refer to olive fruit production, while actual olive oil output will depend on the share of olives processed for oil and their oil content. Large harvests are also expected in other Mediterranean countries, potentially increasing pressure on global prices.

Overall, Turkey exported 87 thsd tons of olives and olive oil in the first nine months of 2026, down 28% from a year earlier. Export revenue fell by the same percentage to $273 mln. Black olive shipments declined by 14% to 48.1 thsd tons, while green olive exports decreased by 19% to 14.4 thsd tons. Olive pomace oil exports also dropped by 40% to 8.6 thsd tons.

Turkish industry representatives are calling on the US and EU to review trade restrictions that are limiting export growth. In particular, the Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters’ Association is seeking the removal of an additional 12.5% tariff on the US market. Turkey is also proposing an increase in the EU’s duty-free olive oil import quota from 100 tons to at least 60 thsd tons. Exporters also hope to secure duty-free access to the UK market under future trade agreements.

Turkey’s position in the global olive oil market has weakened considerably in recent years. In the 2022/23 season, the country exported around 150 thsd tons of olive oil, generating more than $700 mln in revenue, compared with approximately 20 thsd tons worth $105.7 mln in 2025/26. According to USDA forecasts, global olive oil production in 2026/27 is expected to reach around 3.3 mln tons, including 2.1 mln tons in the EU. Against the backdrop of abundant anticipated supply, Turkish exporters will face stronger competition for international markets amid high costs and the possibility of lower global prices.

Tags: olive oil, Turkey