Turkey’s durum exports expected to fall

A major competitor in the durum market is fading away, according to reports.

Turkey stunned the market in 2023-24 when it came out of nowhere and exported 1.6 million tonnes of the cereal crop.

Exports fell to 700,000 tonnes the following year, but that was still well above its typical export program of about 150,000 tonnes.

It appears that the 2025-26 program will be closer to normal, at around 200,000 tonnes, according to the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission’s recent Wheat Market Outlook and Prices report.

Annachiara Saguatti, analyst with Arete, an Italian agri-food intelligence company, said that aligns with their estimate of 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes.

“The pullback looks real,” she said in an email.

Why it Matters: Canada harvested a huge crop and needs all the help it can get.

The two-year stretch of unusually large exports was driven by a combination of better domestic availability, tight global supplies and a favourable export policy environment.

However, conditions have flip-flopped.

The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) bought durum aggressively at high prices of about US$351 per tonne earlier this year to help offset rising input costs and inflation, said Saguatti.

That led to strong domestic sales, leaving less product for export. With intense domestic inflation Turkey’s export prices are not competitive anyway.

Lastly, Arete estimates that the country’s durum production is down about 14 per cent compared to last year, so there is simply less of the crop to export.

Jim Peterson, administrator of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said Turkey’s diminished export program bodes well for North American farmers, who harvested large crops.

Statistics Canada estimates Canada’s durum harvest at 6.54 million tonnes, but many in the trade think that number will rise to 7.5 million tonnes in the final report due out on Dec. 4.

That would be the second largest durum crop on record, next to the 7.76 million tonnes harvested in 2016.

Farmers in the U.S. produced 2.35 million tonnes, a 7.7 per cent increase over the previous year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Small Grains 2025 Summary report released in September.

Peterson said it is unlikely Canada and the United States will pick up all the 500,000-tonne reduction in Turkey’s export program.

“Probably not, because Russia and Kazakhstan and even some of the Eastern European countries have ramped up their durum production,” he said.

However, some extra business will likely head this way. That happened last year when Turkey’s export program was dramatically slashed, so he is hopeful it will happen again.

Saguatti said the global durum market is losing one of its swing exporters, which is important because Turkish volumes were meaningful in a tight market.

She expects Canada to pick up a lot of Turkey’s lost share. Exporters in the European Union and the Black Sea region will also benefit, but to a lesser extent.

“So, Turkey’s diminished role is supportive for Canadian export demand and basis,” she said.

Peterson said what would be even more helpful is the proposed 92 per cent U.S. anti-dumping tariff on Italian pasta.

The U.S. Commerce Department is scheduled to make its final decision on that tariff on Jan. 2, 2026.

He believes the duty would cause U.S. pasta manufacturers to ramp up production to replace imported Italian pasta.

“That would probably be more of a price demand benefit for us here in the U.S., and obviously Canada, too, because you do export down here,” said Peterson.

Saguatti said her contacts in Turkey are reporting seeding delays and “extremely limited” soil moisture conditions for the upcoming crop.

“If meaningful rainfall doesn’t arrive within the next month, concerns arise around germination and crop emergence, which would start to cap yield potential for 2026-27,” she said.

“So, the early risk profile for 2026-27 is tilted to the downside — still weather-dependent, but worth watching closely.”

The International Grains Council is forecasting 8.3 million tonnes of global durum carryout in 2025-26, up from seven million tonnes last year and 6.2 million tonnes the previous year.

Tags: exports, Turkey, prices, Production, crop, Market, durum