Turkey gradually increasing wheat imports

With ending stocks having been whittled down thanks to measures taken by the Turkish government to reduce excess inventory, the country’s wheat imports are expected to increase in the second half of the 2024-25 marketing year, according to a recent report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Turkey’s wheat ending stocks are forecast to decline to 2.8 million tonnes in 2024-25, down from 5.5 million last year, after the TMO suspended wheat imports under the inward processing regime (IPR) from June-October 2024. The measure forced flour millers to purchase wheat from the TMO. As a result, wheat imports during the first half of 2024-25 were down by more than 40% from the previous year, falling to 1.9 million tonnes.

Imports are projected to reach 5.8 million tonnes this year, having increased since October but still will be about half as much as last year’s import total, the FAS said. Russian wheat is expected to account for most of Turkey’s wheat imports.

When the import suspension was partially lifted in mid-October, flour millers were still required to purchase 85% of their wheat from the TMO. The ratio recently was revised to 75% domestic vs. 25% imported.

“According to market sources, these percentages will likely remain in place until the end of the harvest in May,” the FAS said. “At present, all wheat imports come in under the IPR because of the prohibitive MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff of 130%.”

The FAS also sees a significant year-on-year reduction in wheat exports, declining 41% to 7 million tonnes because of “a combination of reasons.”

“These reasons include the temporary suspension of the IPR, the domestic purchase requirements to access the partially renewed IPR, and the expected difficulties for Turkish flour exporters to recover lost market share in key markets in Africa and the Middle East, especially Iraq,” the FAS said.’

Turkey, perennially the world leader in flour exports, saw shipments plummet to 1.7 million tonnes (wheat equivalent) from June to November 2024, a 40% drop compared to the same period the previous year. The FAS said the pace of exports is expected to pick up in the coming months “with the partial renewal of the IPR and prospects for new export opportunities in Syria following the recent regime change in the country.”

Turkish wheat production in 2024-25 is forecast at 19 million tonnes by the FAS, down 2 million from the previous year due to losses resulting from drier-than-normal weather conditions across most of the country.

Tags: Turkey, wheat, imports