Drought in Australia threatens canola crop

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting significantly below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures across key agricultural regions during June–August, according to Reuters. The weather outlook is raising concerns over the development of oilseed crops ahead of the main growing period.

Particular attention is focused on New South Wales and Queensland, where already low rainfall in April–May has depleted soil moisture reserves ahead of the planting season. The situation is even more critical in Western Australia, the country’s largest canola-producing region, where precipitation remained minimal through mid-May and forecasts for the coming months continue to point to dry conditions.

The prolonged moisture deficit is increasing the risk of lower canola yields, with potential losses estimated at 10–20% compared with last year’s results. In 2025, average yields reached around 2.1 tonnes per hectare, a level that may be difficult to replicate under current conditions.

Market analysts note that the final impact will depend on rainfall distribution in the coming months, but current forecasts are already factored into expectations of tighter Australian canola supply.