Turkey is entering the harvest season with more optimistic wheat production forecasts than last year, but alongside this positive outlook, the agricultural sector is facing a new set of challenges. This was stated by participants of the pre-harvest congress of the National Grain Council held in Konya. During the event, experts discussed not only crop prospects but also structural changes in production, trade, and grain market infrastructure.
One of the key production signals came from Prof. Bayram Sade. According to him, if weather conditions remain favorable in April and May, Türkiye’s wheat output could reach 22.75–23.25 million tons. He emphasized that strong winter precipitation was a major supporting factor, exceeding the long-term average by 47% and more than doubling last year’s level.
At the same time, regional estimates indicate an uneven but broad-based recovery. As noted at the congress, wheat production is expected to increase by 4–6% in the Marmara region, 10–12% in the Aegean, 20–22% in the Mediterranean, 6–8% in Central Anatolia, 3–5% in the Black Sea region, 13–15% in Eastern Anatolia, and 23–25% in Southeastern Anatolia. However, Sade stressed that rainfall alone does not guarantee high yields — soil structure, water retention capacity, and agronomic practices will be decisive.
Significant shifts are also taking place in cropping patterns. Prof. Süleyman Soylu stated that wheat planting area has increased from about 7.2 million hectares last season to around 7.5 million hectares this year. Meanwhile, corn area is declining by 10–15% nationwide and by about 30% in the Konya region due to water scarcity. There is also a reduction in cotton planting in the southeast, growing interest in lentils, and a decline in durum wheat area in Central Anatolia.
These production changes are directly affecting processing industries and exports. Aykut Göymen, head of the Turkish Pasta Manufacturers’ Association, said that Türkiye exports around 1.5 million tons of pasta, accounting for about 26% of global exports, while domestic consumption stands at roughly 700,000 tons. However, he warned about the risks of excess capacity, which could reach 4 million tons, raising concerns about whether export demand can absorb such volumes amid rising protectionism and expanding local production in African countries.
Similar challenges are evident in the flour sector. Mesut Çakmak, head of the Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation, said that Türkiye has around 472 mills, of which 379 are active, but average capacity utilization is only about 45%. According to him, trade restrictions and financial bottlenecks in key markets, particularly Iraq, are weighing on exports. If current conditions persist, flour exports could fall to around 2 million tons.
At the same time, the global grain market shows signs of underlying fragility. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Chairman of IAOM Eurasia, stated that global wheat prices at around $240 per ton are too low to cover producers’ costs. He noted that while the market appears well supplied, large harvests and stockpiles, particularly Russia’s exportable surplus, are masking a more fragile balance.
Ulusoy also emphasized that grain pricing is increasingly influenced by energy, logistics, and fertilizer factors. According to him, disruptions in key trade corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea may impact markets not through physical shortages but through higher costs for oil, gas, fertilizers, and freight. With around 75% of global grain trade conducted by sea, this linkage has become critically important.
Additional risks and opportunities were outlined by representatives of related industries and the government. Ülkü Karakuş, President of the Turkish Feed Manufacturers’ Association, said feed production has reached around 30 million tons, with soybeans remaining a strategically important imported input. Minister of Agriculture and Forestry İbrahim Yumaklı assured that Türkiye does not expect a fertilizer shortage and is working to ensure stable supply. TMO General Manager Ahmet Güldal added that state storage facilities are ready for the new season, while the licensed warehousing system, now exceeding 14 million tons, will operate under stricter oversight. Overall, congress participants concluded that Türkiye is entering the new season with stronger production prospects but a more complex risk landscape across the entire grain chain.
