Brazil’s corn market remains structurally tight, supporting prices even amid one of the largest harvests in the country’s history, according to Geraldo José Guimarães Isoldi, analyst at Terra Investimentos.
Data from CONAB estimate Brazil’s 2025/26 corn production at 138.87 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from the previous forecast and marking the second-largest crop on record. The second crop (safrinha) accounts for more than 110 million tonnes of the total. Meanwhile, the soybean production estimate was revised down to 176.12 million tonnes, below the January projection from the USDA.
Although overall supply figures were little changed, higher corn export projections for 2024/25 — increased to 41.5 million tonnes — reduced expected ending stocks for the new season to 12 million tonnes. While this remains the highest level since 2020/21, Isoldi emphasized that Brazil’s corn balance has been tightening structurally.
Rapid expansion in corn-based ethanol production and rising global demand for Brazilian animal protein have significantly boosted domestic consumption. Total demand in the current season is estimated at 141.1 million tonnes, exceeding projected output and pushing the stocks-to-use ratio down to 13%, compared with 19% several years ago.
Despite ample global corn supplies, domestic corn prices in Brazil have increased by 7.65% to around USD 12.7 per 60-kg bag. Market dynamics are gradually shifting from export-driven growth toward stronger domestic demand. In this context, the official export projection of 46 million tonnes appears ambitious, with a more conservative scenario placing exports closer to 40 million tonnes and domestic consumption surpassing 100 million tonnes.
Geopolitical risks remain a key uncertainty. In 2025, Iran imported a record 9.08 million tonnes of Brazilian corn, making it one of the country’s largest buyers. However, even if shipments to Iran were disrupted, the expert believes any downward pressure on prices would likely be short-lived, as Brazil’s strong domestic demand and flexible trade flows would help cushion the impact.
