The USDA lowered its soybean crop forecast, partially offsetting higher canola and sunflower yields

In the September balance of supply and demand for 2022/23 MY, USDA experts lowered the forecast for world production of oilseeds, although it will exceed last year’s level by 7%. The reduction in soybean production in the US is partially offset by the increase in rapeseed in Australia and sunflower in Ukraine. However, the slowdown of the world economy will lead to a decrease in the level of consumption.

The main intrigue of the report was the forecast of soybean production in the USA, which analysts estimated at 120.8 – 124.3 million tons, and Pro Farmer experts – at 123.4 million tons, compared to the USDA’s August forecast of 123.3 million tons. However, in USDA’s new balance sheet significantly lowered yield and area-to-harvest estimates, cutting the crop forecast to 119.15 million tons (120.7 million tons last year), after which November soybean futures rose 4% to $569.4 /t, adding 9.8% of the price per month.

Compared with the August estimates, the September oil balance for the 2022/23 MR underwent the following changes:

• The global production forecast has been reduced by 1.17 million tons to 644.83 million tons, which will be 7% higher than the 602.15 million tons collected in FY 2021/22. The estimate of the rape crop was increased by 0.66 million tons to a record 83.14 (72.31) million tons, sunflower – by 1 million tons to 51.95 (57.13) million tons, while soybeans – decreased by 3 million tons to 389.77 (353.24) million tons.
• Estimates of world exports, imports and processing remained almost unchanged.
• The estimate of world ending stocks has been reduced by 1.72 million tons to 119 million tons, primarily for soybean stocks, but they will exceed the 2021/22 FY figure of 108.49 million tons by 9.7%.

The 2022/23 FY 2022/23 World Soybean Balance, while worse compared to August estimates, looks significantly better than 2021/22 FY 2022:

• The global production forecast was reduced by 3.02 million tons to 389.77 million tons (353.24 million tons in FY 2021/22), in particular for the USA – by 4.14 million tons to 119.16 (120.7) million tons .
• The estimate of world exports was reduced by 1.2 million tons to 167.88 (153.36) million tons, in particular for the USA – by 1.91 to 56.74 (58.38) million tons.
• The estimate of world soybean imports was reduced by 1.2 million tons to 165.02 (152.73) million tons, in particular for China – by 1 million tons to 97 (90) million tons, the EU – by 0.4 to 14.8 ( 13.6) million tons as a result of the increase in the rape crop.
• The forecast of world consumption was reduced by 0.57 million tons to 377.68 (362.96) million tons, in particular for SA – by 0.62 to 63.91 (63.2) million tons.
• The estimate of final reserves was reduced by 2.49 million tons to 98.92 (89.7) million tons, in particular for the USA – by 1.22 to 4.44 (6.53) million tons, China – by 1 to 30.46 (30.74) million tons.

For Ukraine, the soybean harvest forecast was increased by 0.3 million tons, and sunflower – by 1 million tons, as a result of which the estimate of soybean exports was increased by 0.2 to 1.5 million tons, sunflower – by 0.7 to 1.95 million tons , while deliveries to the EU will increase.

The forecast of global rapeseed production was increased by 0.68 million tons to 83.144 million tons (72.3 million tons in 2021/22 MR), separately for the EU – by 0.2 to 18.15 (17.2) million tons, Australia – by 0.4 to 6.5 (6.5) million tons.

The forecast of world sunflower production was increased by 1 million tons to 51.948 (57.13) million tons, in particular for Ukraine – by 1 to 10.5 (17.5) million tons.

Tags: Australia, Ukraine, sunflower, EU, soybean, rapeseed, USA, crop forecast