The soybean market focus is on acreage at the end of the month

A week of slower physical market activity, with fewer business days for negotiations, important monetary policy decisions, and turbulence in the geopolitical scenario. Soybean futures prices had a more restrained movement, despite testing higher levels. The latest impulse came from soyoil, which on Monday registered a sharp high—an off-the-chart movement of almost 9%, forcing the limits up on the CBOT.

The movement was driven by the conflicts between Israel and Iran, besides the updates from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for 2026 (not yet official, as they require approval). These factors supported soyoil prices, which also sent soybean prices higher. Yet, over the week, soybeans remained sideways, hovering around the region of USD 10.80 a bushel.

The market continues to await the US acreage report, scheduled for the end of the month, which may bring new adjustments, including cuts, to the area actually planted. Soybean prices now depend mainly on the size of the area and productivity. Therefore, the weather becomes an extremely sensitive factor, especially in a scenario of tight stocks: a crop of 118 mln tons is already putting pressure on the stock/use ratio.

In the physical market, last week was also marked by low intensity in closed volumes. Prices remained practically stable, with none of the main price makers dictating a clear direction. The CBOT remained sideways, premiums showed just a few swings, and the dollar had very timid changes. As a result, growers remained withdrawn. Physical supply continues to put pressure on the industry, which has been paying above parity in several markets—which could even lead to early shutdowns in some factories, given very tight margins.

Last Wednesday, there were interest rate decisions in both the United States and Brazil. The Fed kept rates unchanged but signaled a possible reduction at the next meeting. In Brazil, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) promoted another high, this time of 0.25%, raising the Selic rate to 15% a year. The decision was widely expected by the market but reinforces pessimism regarding the government’s fiscal commitment.

The latest data from the Treasury show that around 47% of public debt is tied to floating rates. With the Selic rate high, the cost of rolling over this debt increases significantly. This generates knock-on effects: consumption (both by companies and households) tends to decline sharply. For companies, the cost of capital increases, investments are postponed, and leverage increases. For individuals, credit is becoming more expensive, consumption is slowing down, and, to make matters worse, inflation is still showing resistance, remaining above the target ceiling.

The big problem is that there are no real fiscal adjustments. In practice, as expected, there is an attempt to increase the tax base. In this context, raising interest rates is not only inefficient in controlling inflation but can also be a factor in generating it, by increasing production costs and reducing the supply of goods. Moreover, the cost of interest on public debt could nominally exceed the mark of BRL 1 trillion in 2025, putting even more pressure on public accounts.

Tags: Brazil, prices, United States, soybeans, Market, consumption, soyoil