The forecast for soybean sowing in the US was lowered, and corn – raised, but prices fell by 3.3-4.5%
New quarterly USDA reports on crops and stocks in the US did not surprise traders, but a sharp decline in soybean sowing forecasts could lead to another rise in soybean prices.
Oil and agricultural products continue to depreciate against the slowdown of the world economy and against the background of low demand, but price trends may change on the basis of updated balances for wheat, soybeans and corn, which are much worse than in previous seasons.
According to NASS USDA, in 2022 corn in the United States was sown 89.92 million acres, which is in line with analysts’ forecasts, but 3.8% lower than last year’s figure – 93.37 million acres. The forecast for soybean sowing areas was immediately reduced by 2.63 million acres to 88.325 million acres, which is 1.28% higher than last year’s 87.2 million acres, but inferior to analysts’ forecast – 90.466 million acres. The total sowing area of soybeans and corn decreased to 178.246 million acres.
As of June 1, corn stocks in the United States amounted to 110.4 million tons, and soybeans – 26.4 million tons (according to analysts), although last year they amounted to 104.4 and 20.9 million tons, respectively.
The USDA quarterly report was generally market neutral, but December corn futures fell 5.8% to a 4-month low of $ 244 / t (-11.6% month-on-month) on the Chicago Board of Trade. and November soybean futures – by 1.4% to $ 535.7 / t (-3.9% per month).
November corn futures on Paris’ Euronext fell 8 € / t to 298 € / t or $ 311.6 / t (-15% for the month) yesterday.
Prices are under pressure from low rates of export sales and shipments. According to the UIC, 1.25 million tons of corn were exported on June 17-23, and a total of 51.47 million tons since the beginning of the season, which is 82.7% of the USDA forecast. Soybean exports for the week amounted to 517 thousand tons, and in total in the season – 51.73 million tons or 88% of the forecast.
The decline in world prices will soon increase demand, especially against the background of worse than last year, balance sheets and long-term blockade of Ukrainian ports.
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