Analysts forecast an increase in the global wheat harvest in 2025/26. This will curb the rise in prices

In the 2025/26 marketing year, the harvest and world stocks of wheat will be at a high level, which will restrain the rise in prices. This is stated in the Agri Commodity Weekly Alert report, prepared by agricultural economist Dennis Voznesensky of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“As we enter the harvest period in the Northern Hemisphere, a larger-than-expected harvest will restrain the rise in world wheat prices,” the expert notes.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecasts an increase in world wheat stocks to 271 million tonnes by the end of the 2025/26 marketing year – compared to 264 million tonnes a year earlier. In particular, production in Russia is expected to be at 83-85 million tonnes instead of the previously forecast 78-79 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the EU harvest could rise to more than 138 million tonnes from 122 million tonnes last year, up 9% from last year and 6% above the five-year average, according to the European Commission.

Canada’s outlook has also improved thanks to rainfall in the regions, which analysts say added millions of tonnes of grain. The season in the US is also going well.

“We have a promising crop in the US overall. But the drought in the west remains,” said Erica Olson, market development manager for the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

Olson agrees with Voznesensky’s assessment that global supplies will be sufficient: “There are no major risks in key producing countries at this time.”

Tags: crop forecast, prices, wheat