The European Commission’s decision is a signal for Russia to continue blocking the grain corridor

UkrAgroConsult

The European Commission has finally issued a decision on imports of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine to Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia. It has both positive and negative aspects.

This opinion was expressed by Oleg Nivievsky, Vice President for Economic Education, Associate Professor at the Kyiv School of Economics, on Telegram.

According to him, it is good that the European Commission recognizes the unfounded accusations of its partners about Ukraine’s participation in the price collapse.

“The main problem is logistics costs/problems and clogged storage facilities. But there is no data or analytical note. And it was not Ukrainian companies that bought and filled the storage facilities,” the expert adds.

Nivievsky believes that if the ban on wheat, corn, sunflower and rapeseed works, the rebels will remove the rest of the items. There will be transit through these five countries, and imports to other EU countries will continue.

He sees this decision as a blow to EU unity.

“On the contrary, the European Commission found a legal basis. Where were the analysts and politicians of the European Commission looking to see this problem? This is not good,” the expert wrote.

In addition, farmers will be paid for the demarche, emphasizes Nivievsky. “Now we can expect similar things to happen to refugees (for example, in Germany, Italy, or Poland). These are also economic losses for the population of these countries, overcrowding of living space, displacement of locals, etc.

“Although the decision is declared for one month, the EC wrote in black and white that it is ready to extend it. And I think it will continue. Because in a month, there will be a new season, new export volumes, and the logistics of these countries will not get better, only worse. By the way, if they really lift the ban in a month, it will be illogical and will “multiply by zero” all the arguments why they are imposing this ban now,” he explained.

At the same time, this is a blow to Ukraine, the expert said. After all, while the agricultural sector accounts for only 2-5% of GDP for the rebel five, for Ukraine, the agricultural sector is now one of the engines of the economy at war.

“This is also a signal to Russia to continue to slow down the grain corridor, which is probably to be expected,” Nivievsky concluded.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, EU, war, Black Sea grain corridor