Thailand’s sugar output may fall 12.5%

Thailand’s sugar production could fall 12.5% in the 2026/27 season to 10.5 mln tons, according to the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board. Thailand is the world’s second-largest sugar exporter after Brazil.

The expected decline is mainly linked to drought, higher production costs and some farmers switching from sugarcane to cassava. Sugarcane output is forecast at around 95 mln tons, down 9.5% from 105 mln tons last season.

Farmers are also facing higher fertilizer costs, while cane prices remain insufficiently attractive. Industry representatives estimate that global sugar prices would need to reach around 21–22 cents per pound for growers to cover their costs, compared with current levels of about 18–19 cents.

Expectations of lower output in Thailand are already supporting global sugar prices. The market is also factoring in drought-related production risks in India and Brazil.

In some regions, the decline could be much sharper. In Khon Kaen province, sugarcane output may fall to 1.8 mln tons from 5.86 mln tons last season due to uneven rainfall, farmer debt burdens and disease outbreaks.

Tags: sugar, Thailand