Thai rice exports fall 12% amid geopolitical disruptions and weather risks

Thailand’s rice exports declined by 12% year on year in January–April 2026, reaching 2.2 million tonnes valued at $1.25 billion. The data was reported by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, citing figures from the Thai Customs Department.

The main reason for the downturn was disrupted shipments to Middle Eastern markets due to ongoing conflict in the region. Thailand lost part of its key demand base, including Iraq and other major buyers, which significantly reduced overall export volumes.

At the same time, losses were partially offset by stronger demand from Africa and Asia. Malaysia, the Philippines, South Africa, Angola, and Mozambique increased imports of Thai rice, supported by rising food security concerns linked to El Niño weather conditions.

Domestic weather conditions are also adding pressure on the sector. Despite the official start of the rainy season on May 15, rainfall in May remained below the 30-year average. Water reserves in the Chao Phraya basin stood at just 36% capacity, raising concerns about a possible dry spell in June–July.

Production costs are also rising. Imports of nitrogen fertilizers increased in price, while volumes dropped by 20% in the January–April period. Analysts say this reflects tightening supply conditions and growing cost pressure on Thai rice producers.

Tags: rice, Thailand, export