Thai rice exports face pressure as India lifts export ban

This robust forecast is driven by strong demand from African importers stocking up for the Christmas and New Year periods, alongside existing delivery contracts with major Asian markets including the Philippines and Japan.

The association reports continued steady demand for Thai Hom Mali (jasmine) rice from traditional markets such as the United States, Canada, Hong Kong and Singapore.

However, the market landscape is set to shift dramatically after India’s removal of both export taxes and minimum export price requirements, allowing Indian exporters to operate without restrictions.

Customs Department data reveal that Thai rice exports in the first nine months of 2024 reached 7.45 million tonnes, marking a 22% increase year on year, with export value surging 45.8% compared with the same period in 2023.

September’s exports showed a slight decline, with volumes reaching 878,711 tonnes, down 0.8% from August 2024. While parboiled rice and rice grit exports decreased, white rice and jasmine rice maintained strong performance.

White-rice exports held steady at about 507,795 tonnes, with key destinations including Iraq, the Philippines, Togo, Cameroon, Kenya, Mozambique, Benin and Japan.

The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) reports that Thai rice prices are expected to face downward pressure after India’s market return.

As of October 30, Thai 5% white rice was priced at US$507 per tonne, while Vietnamese rice commanded $524-528 per tonne. In contrast, Indian rice was priced at $444-448 per tonne, with Pakistani rice at $461-465 per tonne.

The global rice outlook remains positive, with the US Department of Agriculture forecasting 2024-25 production to reach 530.4 million tonnes, a 1.71% increase from 2023-24. End-of-year stocks are projected to rise by 1.32% to 182.2 million tonnes.

While several major exporters, including Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, Myanmar, Australia and Turkey, are expected to see reduced export volumes, import demand is forecast to grow in numerous markets.

These include the Philippines, Vietnam, China, Saudi Arabia, Ivory Coast, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and several African nations.

Despite the challenging outlook, Thailand maintains its ambitious export target of 8.5 million to 8.7 million tonnes for 2024, though achieving this goal may prove increasingly difficult amid intensifying global competition.

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