Technical Analysis 8/17/2020

Wheat September 2020.

Wheat futures came out of the weekend with Monday gains. SRW wheat was the strongest on the day, closing up by 15 to 16 3/4 cents. HRW futures closed 12 to 14 cents higher. Spring wheat futures on the MGE closed up by 6 1/4 to 7 3/4 cents. USDA announced a large HRW sale for 130,000 MT to unknown destinations under the daily reporting system. From the weekly Export Inspections report, 461,699 MT of wheat was shipped on the week ending August 13. That was split out 26% HRW, 34% HRS, 3% SRW, and, as the top variety, 37% white. The week’s wheat exports were down 15k MT wk/wk, and 102,933 MT below last year. Japan was the week’s top destination with 29% of the total. YTD wheat exports are running 2% ahead of last year’s pace with 5.625 MMT shipped through August 13. National winter wheat harvest is now 93% complete, with ID, MO, OR, SD, and WA wheat still to cut. Spring wheat harvest was 30% cut through August 16, vs. the 43% average.

  • Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.16 1/2, up 16 1/2 cents,
  • Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.37 1/4, up 12 cents,
  • Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.05, up 7 1/2 cents.

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

512.96

513.29

513.96

514.29

514.96

515.29

515.96

Fibonacci

513.29

513.67

513.91

514.29

514.67

514.91

515.29

Camarilla

514.34

514.44

514.53

514.29

514.71

514.80

514.89

Woodie's

513.12

513.37

514.12

514.37

515.12

515.37

516.12

DeMark's

514.12

514.37

515.12

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

67.333

Buy

STOCH(9,6)

62.296

Buy

STOCHRSI(14)

31.001

Sell

MACD(12,26)

3.640

Buy

ADX(14)

39.308

Sell

Williams %R

-21.935

Buy

CCI(14)

32.7826

Neutral

ATR(14)

1.8921

Less Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

0.1707

Buy

Ultimate Oscillator

58.330

Buy

ROC

1.857

Buy

Bull/Bear Power(13)

1.9320

Buy

Buy: 8

Sell: 2

Neutral: 1

Summary:STRONG BUY

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

515.07
Sell

514.94
Sell

MA10

515.56
Sell

513.98
Buy

MA20

511.12
Buy

511.61
Buy

MA50

503.88
Buy

505.82
Buy

MA100

498.55
Buy

502.46
Buy

MA200

500.50
Buy

504.38
Buy

Buy: 9

Sell: 3

Summary:BUY

 

 

Corn September 2020.

From the Crop Progress report, 76% of corn was in the dough stage. The 5-yr average is for 69%. NASS also reported 23% of corn was denting, which is 1 ppt behind the 5-yr average. Corn conditions were down 6 points on the Brugler500 index to 373. Conditions in IA fell back 28 points on the Brugler500, and IL conditions dropped back 9 points. DTN’s Gro Intelligence Virtual Corn Tour has the national average corn yield (without derecho consideration) at 183.9 bpa. The most popular game in town is estimating yield and production losses from the derecho. USDA’s Export Inspections report had 40.825 mbu of corn shipped on the week ending August 13. That was 252k bushels below last week, but more than double the same week last year. YTD corn exports, via weekly data, are now only 12.6% behind last years pace with 1.587 bbu shipped. China was the top destination for the week’s corn exports, with 316,821 MT (31%) of the total. Ukrainian corn forecasts dropped down to 32-32.7mmt due to the dry and hot weather in the past couple weeks.

  • Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.31, up 6 1/2 cents,
  • Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.44 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents,
  • Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.56 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents,
  • May 21 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents.

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

329.12

329.37

329.62

329.87

330.12

330.37

330.62

Fibonacci

329.37

329.56

329.68

329.87

330.06

330.18

330.37

Camarilla

329.74

329.79

329.83

329.87

329.93

329.97

330.02

Woodie's

329.14

329.38

329.64

329.88

330.14

330.38

330.64

DeMark's

329.75

329.94

330.25

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

64.074

Buy

STOCH(9,6)

69.445

Buy

STOCHRSI(14)

0.000

Oversold

MACD(12,26)

1.120

Buy

ADX(14)

45.518

Neutral

Williams %R

-30.675

Buy

CCI(14)

48.0238

Neutral

ATR(14)

0.7771

Less Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

0.0479

Buy

Ultimate Oscillator

58.241

Buy

ROC

0.690

Buy

Bull/Bear Power(13)

0.4940

Buy

Buy: 8

Sell: 0

Neutral: 2

Summary:STRONG BUY

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

330.03
Sell

330.01
Sell

MA10

330.04
Sell

329.77
Buy

MA20

329.07
Buy

328.90
Buy

MA50

326.43
Buy

325.94
Buy

MA100

320.55
Buy

322.20
Buy

MA200

315.56
Buy

319.51
Buy

Buy: 9

Sell: 3

Summary:BUY

 

 

Soybeans November 2020.

Soybeans closed the session with gains of as much as 17 1/4 cents. Meal was the strongest on the day with +2.2% gains in the front months. Bean oil traded 24 to 44 points higher on Monday. Malaysian palm oil stocks at the end of July were down 25.6% year over year at 1.98 MMT. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report had 84% of the crop setting pods, compared to the 5-yr average of 79%USDA reported 28.846 mbu of soybeans were exported on the week ending August 13. That was even wk/wk but 32% lower yr/yr. The top destination for the week’s bean exports was China, with 347,576 MT (44%) of the total. MYTD bean shipments trail last year’s pace by 27% with 1.505 bbu. During July, NOPA member processors crushed 172.8 mbu of soybeans. That was in line with estimates and 3% above July 19’s crush. NOPA member bean oil stocks on July 31 were at the low end of estimates at 1.619b lbs.

  • Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $9.12 1/2, up 15 1/2 cents,
  • Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.15 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents,
  • Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $9.21, up 17 1/4 cents,
  • Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $9.21 1/2, up 17 1/4 cents,
  • Sep 20 Soybean Meal closed at $298.30, up $6.50
  • Sep 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.30, up $0.24

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

910.78

911.70

912.54

913.46

914.30

915.22

916.06

Fibonacci

911.70

912.37

912.79

913.46

914.13

914.55

915.22

Camarilla

912.90

913.06

913.22

913.46

913.54

913.70

913.86

Woodie's

910.74

911.68

912.50

913.44

914.26

915.20

916.02

DeMark's

912.12

913.25

913.88

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

65.783

Buy

STOCH(9,6)

56.804

Buy

STOCHRSI(14)

0.000

Oversold

MACD(12,26)

3.270

Buy

ADX(14)

45.120

Buy

Williams %R

-37.545

Buy

CCI(14)

23.8324

Neutral

ATR(14)

1.8757

High Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

0.0000

Neutral

Ultimate Oscillator

49.444

Neutral

ROC

0.731

Buy

Bull/Bear Power(13)

0.8120

Buy

Buy: 7

Sell: 0

Neutral: 3

Summary:STRONG BUY

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

913.93
Sell

913.93
Sell

MA10

914.57
Sell

913.17
Buy

MA20

910.96
Buy

910.69
Buy

MA50

903.66
Buy

903.46
Buy

MA100

891.67
Buy

896.30
Buy

MA200

884.84
Buy

891.56
Buy

Buy: 9

Sell: 3

Summary:BUY

 

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