Technical Analysis 8/17/2020

Wheat September 2020.

Wheat futures came out of the weekend with Monday gains. SRW wheat was the strongest on the day, closing up by 15 to 16 3/4 cents. HRW futures closed 12 to 14 cents higher. Spring wheat futures on the MGE closed up by 6 1/4 to 7 3/4 cents. USDA announced a large HRW sale for 130,000 MT to unknown destinations under the daily reporting system. From the weekly Export Inspections report, 461,699 MT of wheat was shipped on the week ending August 13. That was split out 26% HRW, 34% HRS, 3% SRW, and, as the top variety, 37% white. The week’s wheat exports were down 15k MT wk/wk, and 102,933 MT below last year. Japan was the week’s top destination with 29% of the total. YTD wheat exports are running 2% ahead of last year’s pace with 5.625 MMT shipped through August 13. National winter wheat harvest is now 93% complete, with ID, MO, OR, SD, and WA wheat still to cut. Spring wheat harvest was 30% cut through August 16, vs. the 43% average.

• Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.16 1/2, up 16 1/2 cents,
• Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.37 1/4, up 12 cents,
• Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.05, up 7 1/2 cents.

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Corn September 2020.

From the Crop Progress report, 76% of corn was in the dough stage. The 5-yr average is for 69%. NASS also reported 23% of corn was denting, which is 1 ppt behind the 5-yr average. Corn conditions were down 6 points on the Brugler500 index to 373. Conditions in IA fell back 28 points on the Brugler500, and IL conditions dropped back 9 points. DTN’s Gro Intelligence Virtual Corn Tour has the national average corn yield (without derecho consideration) at 183.9 bpa. The most popular game in town is estimating yield and production losses from the derecho. USDA’s Export Inspections report had 40.825 mbu of corn shipped on the week ending August 13. That was 252k bushels below last week, but more than double the same week last year. YTD corn exports, via weekly data, are now only 12.6% behind last years pace with 1.587 bbu shipped. China was the top destination for the week’s corn exports, with 316,821 MT (31%) of the total. Ukrainian corn forecasts dropped down to 32-32.7mmt due to the dry and hot weather in the past couple weeks.

• Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.31, up 6 1/2 cents,
• Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.44 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents,
• Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.56 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents,
• May 21 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents.

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Soybeans November 2020.

Soybeans closed the session with gains of as much as 17 1/4 cents. Meal was the strongest on the day with +2.2% gains in the front months. Bean oil traded 24 to 44 points higher on Monday. Malaysian palm oil stocks at the end of July were down 25.6% year over year at 1.98 MMT. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report had 84% of the crop setting pods, compared to the 5-yr average of 79%USDA reported 28.846 mbu of soybeans were exported on the week ending August 13. That was even wk/wk but 32% lower yr/yr. The top destination for the week’s bean exports was China, with 347,576 MT (44%) of the total. MYTD bean shipments trail last year’s pace by 27% with 1.505 bbu. During July, NOPA member processors crushed 172.8 mbu of soybeans. That was in line with estimates and 3% above July 19’s crush. NOPA member bean oil stocks on July 31 were at the low end of estimates at 1.619b lbs.

• Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $9.12 1/2, up 15 1/2 cents,
• Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.15 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents,
• Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $9.21, up 17 1/4 cents,
• Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $9.21 1/2, up 17 1/4 cents,
• Sep 20 Soybean Meal closed at $298.30, up $6.50
• Sep 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.30, up $0.24

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

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