Technical Analysis 8/10/2020

Wheat September 2020

Wheat was down again today. SRW wheat was down the most, with September off 4 ½ cents. Sept SRW wheat has traded lower for the last 5/6 days and a total loss of 36 cents. KC futures closed Monday’s session with 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cent losses. MGE wheat fell back 3 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents. USDA’s weekly export data from the week ending August 6 showed that 379,949 MT of wheat was exported. That was down 32% wk/wk, and 47% below the same week last year. Of the week’s wheat shipments, 23% was destined for Japan. MYTD wheat exports via the weekly report were 2% ahead of 19/20’s pace with 5.067 MMT. Ukraine’s wheat harvest was 87% complete as of August 6. As French wheat harvest wraps up, estimates are for 29-30 MMT. NASS reported 90% of this year’s winter wheat harvest was complete, the average is 93% and trade was expecting 91%. Spring wheat harvest was 10% behind the 5-yr average, with new crop 15% cut as of August 9. Pakistan is tendering for 1.5 MMT of optional origin wheat. Egypt also opened an international wheat tender, with results expected tomorrow.

  • Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.91, down 4 1/2 cents,
  • Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.14, down 1 1/2 cents,
  • Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.90 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

492.06

492.47

492.80

493.21

493.54

493.95

494.28

Fibonacci

492.47

492.75

492.93

493.21

493.49

493.67

493.95

Camarilla

492.92

492.98

493.05

493.21

493.19

493.26

493.32

Woodie's

492.00

492.44

492.74

493.18

493.48

493.92

494.22

DeMark's

492.63

493.12

493.37

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

45.911

Neutral

STOCH(9,6)

46.122

Neutral

STOCHRSI(14)

85.843

Overbought

MACD(12,26)

-1.310

Sell

ADX(14)

38.159

Buy

Williams %R

-52.364

Neutral

CCI(14)

41.9862

Neutral

ATR(14)

1.8400

Less Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

0.0000

Neutral

Ultimate Oscillator

54.625

Buy

ROC

0.024

Buy

Bull/Bear Power(13)

0.4160

Buy

Buy: 4

Sell: 1

Neutral: 5

Summary:BUY

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

492.75
Buy

492.80
Buy

MA10

491.98
Buy

492.65
Buy

MA20

492.89
Buy

493.31
Sell

MA50

496.91
Sell

496.88
Sell

MA100

503.39
Sell

503.21
Sell

MA200

515.33
Sell

511.47
Sell

Buy: 5

Sell: 7

Summary:SELL

 

 

Corn September 2020

Corn futures gained 1 1/2 to 2 3/4 cents to start the new week. Weekly export shipments were the largest since June 18. A derecho with 100+ mph winds also swept through part of IA, flattening crops. As of August 9, NASS says that 11% of new crop corn in the 18 major states was dented. The 5-yr average is 12%. Also from the Crop Progress report, 59% of corn was in the dough stage, and only 3% of the national crop had yet to reach silking stage. Corn conditions fell back a point on the Brugler500 index to 379. Colorado ratings fell the most, dropping back 20 points to 295. From the week ending August 6, USDA reported 1.151 MMT (45.3 mbu) of corn was exported. That was 16.5 mbu above the same week last year. Of the week’s shipments, China was the top destination with 23% of the total, 21% was for Mexico, and 15% was destined for Japan. Accumulated corn exports were up to 1.54 bbu, which still trails last year’s pace by 14%.

  • Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.10 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,
  • Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.23, up 2 1/4 cents,
  • Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.34 3/4, up 2 cents,
  • May 21 Corn closed at $3.43, up 1 3/4 cents

 

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

312.78

312.95

313.28

313.45

313.78

313.95

314.28

Fibonacci

312.95

313.14

313.26

313.45

313.64

313.76

313.95

Camarilla

313.48

313.53

313.57

313.45

313.67

313.71

313.76

Woodie's

312.86

312.99

313.36

313.49

313.86

313.99

314.36

DeMark's

313.37

313.50

313.87

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

72.001

Buy

STOCH(9,6)

73.132

Buy

STOCHRSI(14)

97.426

Overbought

MACD(12,26)

0.840

Buy

ADX(14)

57.823

Buy

Williams %R

-5.328

Overbought

CCI(14)

163.9295

Buy

ATR(14)

0.8407

High Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

1.9164

Buy

Ultimate Oscillator

73.666

Overbought

ROC

1.456

Buy

Bull/Bear Power(13)

3.5280

Buy

Buy: 8

Sell: 0

Neutral: 0

Summary:STRONG BUY

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

313.02
Buy

313.02
Buy

MA10

311.99
Buy

312.18
Buy

MA20

310.82
Buy

311.33
Buy

MA50

310.39
Buy

310.66
Buy

MA100

310.65
Buy

311.46
Buy

MA200

313.97
Sell

314.33
Sell

Buy: 10

Sell: 2

Summary:BUY

 

 

Soybeans August 2020

The soy complex was higher in beans and meal, but oil closed lower. Front month soybean futures closed the session with gains of as much as 6 1/4 cents led by in delivery August. The other front months were 4 3/4 to 5 3/4 cents higher. Meal futures were up by $2.2 to $2.5 at the closing bell. Ahead of Friday’s expiration, there have been 1,122 contracts of August meal delivered against futures. MTD soybean oil deliveries sit at 764 contracts. There have still been zero deliveries vs. August beans. Bean oil futures closed on Monday with 7 to 16 point losses. USDA announced three large new crop bean export sales this morning. Private exporters reported sales of 111,000 MT to unknown, 324,000 MT to China, and another 264,000 MT to China in delayed reporting. The weekly Export Inspections report from USDA showed that 23.4 mbu of soybeans were shipped on the week ending Aug 6. That was up 14% wk/wk but down by 11% from the same week of 19/20. The Crop Progress report showed that 75% of new crop beans were setting pods. That was up from 59% last week, and was 7% ahead of average. Conditions improved on the week, up 4 points on the Brugler500 index to 385.

  • Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.76 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents,
  • Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.70, up 4 1/4 cents,
  • Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.73 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,
  • Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $8.79 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,
  • Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $282.20, up $2.20
  • Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.19, down $0.16

 

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

873.30

873.71

874.30

874.71

875.30

875.71

876.30

Fibonacci

873.71

874.09

874.33

874.71

875.09

875.33

875.71

Camarilla

874.61

874.70

874.79

874.71

874.97

875.06

875.16

Woodie's

873.38

873.75

874.38

874.75

875.38

875.75

876.38

DeMark's

874.50

874.81

875.50

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

57.588

Buy

STOCH(9,6)

75.717

Buy

STOCHRSI(14)

87.674

Overbought

MACD(12,26)

0.290

Buy

ADX(14)

64.314

Buy

Williams %R

-12.563

Overbought

CCI(14)

75.6842

Buy

ATR(14)

1.8729

High Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

1.3193

Buy

Ultimate Oscillator

49.202

Neutral

ROC

0.954

Buy

Bull/Bear Power(13)

3.7800

Buy

Buy: 8

Sell: 0

Neutral: 1

Summary:STRONG BUY

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

873.93
Buy

874.27
Buy

MA10

873.92
Buy

873.08
Buy

MA20

870.78
Buy

872.53
Buy

MA50

874.07
Buy

874.01
Buy

MA100

878.60
Sell

878.28
Sell

MA200

886.85
Sell

884.16
Sell

Buy: 8

Sell: 4

Summary:BUY

 

 

UkrAgroConsult

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