Super El Niño lifts Argentina soybean crop forecast by 8%

USDA FAS raised its forecast for Argentina’s soybean production in 2026/27 by 8% from its previous estimate to 52.5 mln tons. This is also 4% above the previous season’s crop of 50.5 mln tons. The upward revision reflects expectations of strong yields amid the development of a powerful El Niño.

Soybean area is also expected to expand due to more favorable crop economics and comparatively lower production costs than corn. Some farmers, particularly in northern regions, may reduce corn acreage because of concerns over corn stunt disease spread by the chicharrita leafhopper.

At the same time, production costs remain a significant risk. Fuel expenses in 2026/27 are expected to rise by 24% from the previous season, while crop protection costs may increase by 7%, partly offsetting the benefits of favorable price signals.

Argentina’s soybean crush is forecast at 44.8 mln tons, which would be the second-highest level on record. However, the country’s position as the world’s leading soybean meal exporter is increasingly being challenged by the United States and Brazil, where crushing capacity continues to expand.

Soybean oil production in 2026/27 is estimated at 8.96 mln tons, while exports are forecast at 6.8 mln tons, up from 6.3 mln tons a season earlier. Demand is being supported by the use of Argentine soybean oil as a biodiesel feedstock, with shipments to Europe increasing and Canada expected to become an important new market.

Tags: soybean, Argentina