Sunseeds prices in Ukraine could fall by 3,000 UAH per tonne at the height of the harvest

New-crop sunflower seed prices in Ukraine could decline significantly in September-October due to a surge in seasonal supply and limited operations at deep-water ports. According to PUSK analysts, prices may start the season at UAH 19,000–20,000/t before falling to UAH 16,000–17,000/t during the peak harvest period.

Despite unfavorable weather in southern regions, Ukraine’s sunflower seed crop is estimated at no less than 11.5–12 mln tons. Due to a lack of rainfall and high temperatures, yields in some southern areas could fall to 1.2–1.5 t/ha, but overall production is expected to be sufficient to meet domestic crushing demand.

The strongest pressure on the market is expected in September-October, when large volumes of new-crop sunflower seed enter the market. If favorable weather allows harvesting to proceed without delays, rapidly increasing supply combined with limited port logistics could push purchase prices down by around UAH 3,000/t.

However, analysts expect prices to partially recover after the seasonal supply peak passes. By December-January, sunflower seed prices could return to UAH 19,000–20,000/t, assuming the market follows the seasonal pattern typically seen under constrained port logistics.

PUSK believes that producers unable to lock in prices of UAH 20,000–21,000/t now could consider selling only part of their crop at the beginning of the season. The remaining volumes could be stored in anticipation of a potential price recovery closer to winter.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, sunseed, harvesting