Sudan risks grain deficit of up to 3.56 mln tons in MY 2026/27

Amid the ongoing armed conflict, Sudan risks facing a grain deficit of 3.08–3.56 mln tons in MY 2026/27. The war, market disruptions, shortages of agricultural inputs and adverse weather conditions are increasing the threat of a food crisis. According to an assessment by public policy specialist Mohamed Elmunir Ahmed Safieldin, Sudan’s requirements for sorghum, millet and wheat in 2027 will total approximately 7.93 mln tons, assuming a population of 49 mln people.

In 2025, Sudan produced approximately 5.25 mln tons of these three major grains. If sorghum and millet production falls by 20% from 2025 levels in MY 2026/27, while wheat production reaches the government’s target of 1 mln tons, the deficit could reach 3.08 mln tons. If sorghum and millet output declines by 30%, the deficit could rise to 3.56 mln tons.

Low rainfall is creating additional risks for the harvest. According to FAO data published on September 24, 2026, rainfall in Sennar and Gedaref states was approximately 20% and 30% below normal, respectively. Together, the two states account for about a quarter of Sudan’s average sorghum production. Severe drought conditions were observed across areas covering up to 55% of cropland in Sennar and 70% in Gedaref.

According to the author’s calculations, importing enough grain to cover the potential deficit would cost $1.17–1.37 bln. Including freight, insurance and handling costs, the total financing requirement could rise to $1.35–1.58 bln. The war is complicating not only food access but also the transportation of grain from ports and production areas to communities in need.

According to UN figures cited in the article, 19.5 mln people in Sudan are already facing acute food insecurity. To reduce the risks, the author calls for advance grain procurement, support for local sorghum and millet producers, and timely access to seeds, fertilisers, fuel and agricultural financing. The outlook will depend on actual harvests, import capacity and the security of food supplies amid the armed conflict.

Tags: grain, Sudan, wheat, imports, war, sorghum