StoneX reduced the forecast for the global sugar balance surplus in MY 2025/26

International analysts StoneX have lowered their forecast for the global sugar surplus in the MY 2025/2026 season by 800 thousand tons to 2.9 million tons, mainly due to a reduction of more than 1 million tons in the expected sugar production in Brazil.

In the 2025/2026 MY season, sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil is estimated at 40 million tons, which is 1.5% less than in the previous season. In the northeastern region, increased attention to ethanol production led to a reduction in the share of sugar production from sugar cane, which was estimated at 3 million tons, which is 18.5% less than in the previous season.

Global sugar stocks are expected to rise by 4% to 76.7 million tonnes, pushing the sugar stock-to-consumption ratio to 39.6%, above the five-year average of 39%.

“Global performance in the MY 2025/26 season was mixed. Thailand and China faced significant delays, while European production exceeded expectations, especially in the European Union and Ukraine,” analysts said. “In India, harvesting is continuing as expected, driven by an increase in the crop in Maharashtra.”

StoneX analysts expect India’s sugar production to reach 32.3 million tonnes in the MY 2025/26 season. Thailand’s sugar production is expected to be 10.5 million tonnes, while China’s is forecast at 11.5 million tonnes. In the EU and the UK, total sugar production is estimated to reach 16.8 million tonnes.

“Rainfall in Central-South Brazil through March will be critical for sugarcane supplies. Below-average rainfall could reduce production. Updated crop forecasts in Thailand, China and India could also contribute to improved estimates for the current season,” StoneX said.

Tags: sugar