StoneX forecasts higher US corn and soybean yields

Ahead of the September USDA report, StoneX analysts released forecasts for US corn and soybean yields that exceed the agency’s August estimates and average market expectations. Confirmation of these figures in the new USDA balance sheet could increase pressure on futures prices.

StoneX estimates the US soybean yield at 53 bu/acre, compared with USDA’s August forecast of 52.7 bu/acre and the analysts’ average estimate of 52.5 bu/acre. Soybean production is forecast at 123.75 mln tons, compared with USDA’s 123 mln tons and 116 mln tons in 2025/26 MY.

StoneX lowered its corn yield forecast from 184.8 to 182.9 bu/acre, but the figure remains well above USDA’s August estimate of 180.7 bu/acre and the analysts’ average expectation of 178.2 bu/acre. Corn production is estimated at 411.7 mln tons, compared with 406.7 mln tons in USDA’s August balance sheet.

The estimates indicate that despite localized adverse weather conditions in late summer, US corn crop potential remains high. However, expected production would still be below the 432.3 mln tons harvested in 2025/26 MY.

The September USDA report will be particularly important for the market, as yield estimates will be updated using field measurements. If USDA raises its corn and soybean forecasts from August levels, expectations of larger supplies could put additional pressure on prices.

Tags: corn, soybean, USA, StoneX