Statistics Canada Reports Record October Canola Crush

Statistics Canada reported a record canola crush of 974,276 metric tons (mt) for October, up for a second month. This is above the 885,331 mt crushed for the same month in 2022-23 and the 824,840 mt needed this month in order to stay on track to reach the current 10 mmt forecast from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, which was left unchanged this month. The previous record crush was achieved in July at 961,683 mt.

The cumulative crush is calculated at 2.726 mmt, up 17.9% from the same three-month period in 2022-23 and 14% above the three-year average.

The October record canola crush of 974,376 mt (blue bar) is up for a second month and above the volume needed this month to reach the current AAFC forecast (black line). (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Based on Statistics Canada’s data, the oil content realized for the August-October crush is calculated at 42.2%, which compares to the 2022-23 content of 41.7% and the five-year average of 42.8%. Note that this continues to trail the Canadian Grain Commission’s harvest sample analysis, which points to an eastern Canada mean protein of 43.5% and the Western Canada mean at 43.6%. The crop year average is bound to increase during coming months.

A ProphetX chart approximating the move in the ICE Canola Board Margin Index shows a mean index of $219.89/mt calculated for October, which compares $231.40/mt for the previous month, calculated using continuous active futures. The October 2022 index is calculated at $235.29/mt. The index continues to point to a historically high return generated crushing canola.

Today’s report also included 168,679 mt of soybeans crushed, the largest monthly crush seen since April 2022, or 18 months. During the first two months of 2023-24, the crush totals 315,414 mt, the fastest start to the crop year in five years, up 3.8% from 2022-23 and 4.6% higher than the three-year average. The average crush over two months is 18.4%, down from the 2022-23 average of 18.9% and the three-year average of 18.7%. The October oil content percentage is 18.06%, the lowest monthly percentage reported since December 2020.

Tags: canola, Canada, forecast, crush