Soybean supply and use projections for 2021-22 unchanged from Nov: USDA

The US Department of Agriculture has kept all US supply and use projections unchanged from November estimates, it said in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report released Dec. 9.

The US soybean yield forecast for the 2021-22 marketing year (September-August) has been estimated at 51.2 bu/acre, steady on the previous estimate in November,
S&P Global Platts Analytics forecast the MY 2021-22 soybean yield at 51 bu/acre, steady on the year.

The USDA set the production estimate at 4.425 billion bushels, up 209 million bushels year on year, while Platts Analytics is looking at 4.5 billion bushels.

The USDA sees the US soybean crush for the MY 2021-22 at 2.190 billion bushels, unchanged from the November estimate, while Platts Analytics sees it at 2.250 billion bushels.

Soybean exports have also remained unchanged from the previous estimate at 2.050 billion bushels, the report said. Similarly, 2021-22 ending stocks were projected at 340 million bushels, steady on the previous estimate, the USDA said.

Platts Analytics sees MY 2021-22 crushing and exports at 2.250 billion bushels and 2 billion bushels, respectively.

Compared with Platts Analytics estimates of $12.50/bu, the US season-average soybean price for the MY 2021-22 was forecast at $12.10/bu, steady on last month, the USDA said.

US soybean meal production estimates for the MY 2021-22 were forecast at 51.71 million st, steady month on month, while the ending stocks estimate remained steady at 400,000 st, the USDA said.

The soybean meal price was forecast at $330/st, up $5/st month on month, according to the WASDE report.

US soybean oil production was estimated at 25.73 billion lb, up 200 million lb on last month’s estimate, while the soybean oil price forecast was unchanged at 65 cents/lb.

Although soybean crush was unchanged, soybean oil production was raised on a higher extraction rate, the USDA said. With increased soybean oil supplies, food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil was raised, offsetting lower consumption of canola and cottonseed oils, it said.

S&P Global Platts

Tags: USDA, export, soybean, US, Production, forecast, yield, MY 2021-22, soybean crush