Soybean prices remain under pressure from increased supply

Even with increased demand from China, soybean quotes on the Chicago Stock Exchange remain low amid increased supply from producers, especially given the acceleration of planting in Brazil.

In Ukraine, a slowdown in port operations amid an acceleration of harvesting also increases soybean supply and lowers prices.

In the US, as of October 23, soybeans were harvested on 80% of the area, compared to 71% last year and 67% of the 5-year average on this date.

Exports of soybeans from the USA for the week of October 14-20 increased to 2.889 million tons (of which 75% were purchased by China), which is 12.5% higher than the corresponding indicator last year and 32% higher than the 5-year average for this period. The total export of the season reached 7.6 million tons, which is 13% lower than last year’s pace.

In September, China increased soybean imports compared to August from 7.17 to 7.72 million tons (6.88 million tons in September 2021), and in total imported 69.04 million tons of soybeans since the beginning of the year, by 6.6% less than during this period last year.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange were trading at $505/t on the back of good soybean harvesting rates in the US and favorable planting weather in Brazil.

According to AgRural, soybeans in Brazil are 34% of planned acreage (38% at the same date last year) as heavy rains delay work and cold temperatures slow the development of crops.

Last week, in Ukraine, purchase prices for soybeans with GMOs delivered to the factory dropped to UAH 13,000/t, and for soybeans without GMOs to UAH 15,000/t. Due to uncertainty with the further operation of the grain corridor, soybean prices in the Black Sea ports fell from $370-390/t to $330-350/t.

Demand prices for non-GMO soybeans from European buyers also fell to €450-500/t with delivery to the border.

The decline in sunflower prices has led to a drop in sunflower and soybean meal prices, which accordingly increases the pressure on soybean quotations.