Soybean price gap between US and Brazil continues to narrow

One of the key trends on the soybean spot market in June has been the reduction in the export price gap between Brazil and the United States. Since the beginning of the month, FOB Gulf quotations have fallen by approximately $15 per tonne, reflecting shifting dynamics in global trade flows.

The decline in U.S. soybean prices is largely driven by expectations of a strong upcoming harvest, with the main crop set to begin in September, supported by generally favorable crop conditions. At the same time, market sentiment may also be influenced by Chinese buying behavior, which appears to be encouraging adjustments in export pricing strategies across both North and South America.

In Brazil, soybean prices remain relatively supported by steady global demand. However, competition for the Chinese market between U.S. and Brazilian suppliers is expected to intensify in the coming months, particularly as seasonal factors begin to affect South American export volumes.

Analysts note that from July onward, a seasonal slowdown in South American shipments could further reshape global soybean trade balances. At the same time, expectations of record harvests are likely to keep export volumes above the five-year average, maintaining strong competition between the two leading exporters.

Tags: Brazil, prices, soybean, USA