Soybean oil prices decline while Indian demand supports sunflower oil market

Global soybean and sunflower oil markets remain influenced by growing supplies and expectations of stronger import demand. December soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) declined by 1.9% over the past week to $1,470/t. Prices have fallen by 3.2% over the month, although they remain 30.8% higher year-on-year. The main factors weighing on the market were an upward revision to the US soybean production forecast and a 2.8% weekly decline in soybean prices.

Additional pressure came from a 4.5% decline in US soybean crushing in September to 5.34 mln tons, which was significantly below analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, the market showed little reaction to a 12.4% reduction in US soybean oil stocks from the end of August to 478 thsd tons, the lowest level since November 2014. In Brazil, spot soybean oil prices remained at $1,220–1,240/t FOB during the week, while Argentine soybean oil was offered at $1,200–1,220/t FOB. On China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, futures declined by $15–20/t to $1,315–1,320/t.

The sunflower oil market is showing somewhat different dynamics, supported by demand from India. Over the past week, Indian bid prices for sunflower oil increased by $10–20/t to $1,400–1,420/t CIF Mumbai, while offers from the Black Sea region stood at $1,435–1,460/t CIF Mumbai. Prices are being supported by a 36% decline in India’s sunflower oil imports in September to 103 thsd tons, the lowest level since April 2022. The reduction in shipments was linked to disruptions at Black Sea ports in Ukraine and Russia, limiting product availability for Indian buyers.

In Ukraine, sunflower oil prices declined over the week to $1,000–1,100/t FCA plant due to further increases in road and rail transportation costs to ports and EU buyers. Meanwhile, bid prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil delivered to the European Union remain at $1,340–1,360/t. Increasing domestic supplies are limiting the potential for further price growth. At the same time, competition from Argentina is intensifying, with Argentine sunflower oil offered at $1,300–1,330/t FOB for November–December delivery and $1,250–1,290/t FOB for February–April delivery.

Meanwhile, the outlook for the global sunflower oil market is supported by expectations of stronger demand from India. According to the Indian sunflower oil producers’ association, the country’s sunflower oil imports are forecast to increase by 30% to 3.5 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, while soybean oil imports could decline by 10.7% to 5 mln tons. Argentina is also strengthening its position in the Indian market, with its share of sunflower oil supplies rising from 8% to 12% in 2026. For Ukrainian exporters, further growth in Indian demand creates additional sales opportunities, although realizing this potential will depend on the availability of maritime logistics and competitive export prices.

Tags: sunflower oil, vegetable oils, soybean oil, edible oils