Soybean and rapeseed prices are rising despite an improvement in the global oilseed balance

USDA raised its forecast for global oilseed production in MY 2026/27 by 1.05 mln tons to a record 721 mln tons in its August report. This would be 20.3 mln tons above the 2025/26 level. The global oilseed crush forecast was also raised by 1 mln tons to 609.54 mln tons, while ending stocks were left unchanged at 146.3 mln tons.

USDA forecasts global soybean production at a record 442.25 mln tons, up 0.55 mln tons from its July estimate. The U.S. crop forecast was raised by 1.2 mln tons to 123 mln tons following an increase in planted area to 85.8 mln acres. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s soybean production forecast was cut by 0.2 mln tons to 4.7 mln tons, compared with 5.5 mln tons in MY 2025/26.

Despite the improved supply outlook, futures continued to rise. November soybean futures in Chicago gained 1.2% to $437.5/t following the report. November rapeseed futures in Paris rose 0.9% to €536.75/t, or $619/t, while November canola futures in Winnipeg gained 1.9% to 795 CAD/t, or about $570/t. Higher crude oil prices and restrictions on Black Sea exports provided support to the markets.

USDA raised its global rapeseed production forecast by 0.5 mln tons to a record of around 99 mln tons, partly due to improved crop prospects in Canada. The global sunflower seed production forecast was unchanged at 62.62 mln tons. Ukraine’s crop estimate remained at 13 mln tons, while the EU forecast was cut by 0.3 mln tons to 9.5 mln tons and Argentina’s was raised to 8 mln tons.

The situation in Ukraine differs significantly from global market trends. Sunflower seed prices have fallen by UAH 7,000–8,000/t over the past month to UAH 25,000–27,000/t delivered to plants, while new-crop prices are indicated at just UAH 19,000–20,000/t. Prices are under pressure from disruptions to seaborne exports and shutdowns at some southern crushing plants, while restrictions on Black Sea supplies continue to support global oilseed and vegetable oil prices.

Tags: Ukraine, soybean, USDA Report, rapeseed, grain market