South Africa’s wheat crop to fall to an eight-year low

South Africa’s wheat crop in the MY 2026/27 is estimated at 1.81 mln tons, down 5% year-on-year. This would be the lowest harvest in eight years.

The decline is mainly due to a reduction in planted area and weaker yield prospects following dry weather in parts of the Western Cape.

With a smaller crop, South Africa is likely to increase wheat imports to around 2 mln tons, compared with 1.8 mln tons in the previous season. The estimate could still change, as this is only the second production forecast.

At the same time, the country’s total winter crop is estimated at 2.67 mln tons, up 2% year-on-year. This includes wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupines.

Global wheat supplies remain relatively comfortable. The IGC estimates 2026/27 world wheat production at 820 mln tons, although logistics risks in the Black Sea region continue to support prices.

Tags: harvest, wheat, South Africa