South Africa’s corn production could fall 19% to 14.9 mln tons

Corn production in South Africa could decline to 14.9 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, compared with a record 18.39 mln tons in the previous season. This would represent a decrease of approximately 19%. According to a November 3 forecast from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in Pretoria, the main factors behind the expected decline are reduced planting areas, unfavorable weather prospects and rising production costs.

One of the major risks to the new crop is a strong El Niño event, which increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall across the country’s northern and eastern regions from late spring through midsummer. Farmers are also facing additional pressure from historically high diesel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, South Africa’s corn harvested area could decline to 2.76 mln hectares in 2026/27, compared with 3.12 mln hectares a year earlier. Average yields are forecast at 5.4 t/ha, down from 5.9 t/ha in the previous season.

Lower production is expected to lead to a substantial reduction in South Africa’s corn inventories. According to USDA estimates, ending stocks could fall to 2.11 mln tons in 2026/27 from a record 4.21 mln tons in 2025/26, representing a decline of nearly 50%. Meanwhile, domestic corn consumption is forecast to increase to 14.5 mln tons from 14.2 mln tons last year. Tighter supplies amid rising demand could increase pressure on the domestic grain market.

South Africa’s corn exports are also projected to decline to 2.5 mln tons in 2026/27, compared with 3 mln tons in the previous season. However, favorable planting conditions are currently limiting the risk of a more significant production decline. Relatively favorable weather is expected to continue through December, while soil moisture levels in many areas remain above the five-year average following the wet 2025/26 season.

South Africa is currently among the world’s ten largest corn producers, but a smaller harvest could cause the country to lose its position in the top ten. In its official October forecast, USDA estimated South African corn production at 16.5 mln tons, equal to Russia’s output and slightly below Canada’s projected 16.8 mln tons. If USDA incorporates the revised estimate from its Pretoria office, South Africa could fall to eleventh place in the global corn production ranking. USDA’s next global agricultural outlook report is scheduled for November 10.

Tags: corn, South Africa