South Africa to increase wheat imports as crop falls to eight-year low
South Africa’s 2026/27 winter crop production is forecast at 2.67 mln tons, up 2% year-on-year. However, the outlook varies by crop: canola, barley and oats production is expected to increase, while the wheat harvest is set to decline.
Wheat production is forecast at 1.81 mln tons, down 5% from a year earlier and the lowest level in eight years. The decline reflects reduced planted area and dry conditions in parts of the Western Cape, which have weakened yield prospects.
As a result of the smaller crop, South Africa is likely to increase wheat imports to around 2.0 mln tons, up from 1.9 mln tons in the previous season. At the same time, no major supply constraints are expected on the global wheat market.
The outlook is stronger for other winter crops. Barley production could rise by 20% to 414.6 thsd tons, canola by 20% to 377.8 thsd tons, and oats by 28% to 55.9 thsd tons. The main driver is an expansion in planted area.
Black Sea logistics remain an additional risk for importers. According to the analysis, disruptions to shipments through Ukraine remain one of the key short-term factors supporting global wheat prices.
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