South Africa sees wheat plantings drop to 11-year low as costs surge

South Africa is expected to see wheat plantings fall to their lowest level in more than a decade in 2026, as rising production costs weigh heavily on farmers. The increase in fuel and fertilizer prices, driven in part by geopolitical tensions involving Iran, has significantly reduced the attractiveness of wheat cultivation.

According to the Crop Estimates Committee, farmers plan to plant around 486,400 hectares of wheat this year, down 6% from the previous season. This would mark the smallest planted area since 2015, reflecting a shift toward more profitable crops.

Fuel and fertilizer account for nearly half of grain production costs in South Africa, and most of these inputs are imported. Following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, wholesale diesel prices in the country surged by more than 40% in early April and may rise further in the coming weeks.

Despite the decline in wheat area, the situation could be partly offset by a strong corn harvest. Corn production in 2026 is expected to increase by 2% to 16.8 million tons, potentially reaching a record level.

A larger corn crop may help ease inflationary pressure caused by reduced wheat output. However, analysts warn that risks to food prices remain, as cereal products make up a significant share of the country’s consumer basket.