Shipping disruptions in Strait of Hormuz threaten global fertilizer supplies

The global fertilizer market is facing serious risks due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key routes for international trade in urea, ammonia and sulfur. This is according to a report by S&P Global Institute published on October 19. Analysts warn that fertilizer supply disruptions could force farmers to reduce fertilizer application rates, lower crop yields and increase threats to global food security.

According to S&P Global, approximately 29% of global urea trade, nearly half of seaborne sulfur shipments and around 21% of international ammonia trade normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Such a concentration of trade flows makes the global fertilizer market particularly vulnerable to shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf region. Transport restrictions pose risks to the stable supply of both finished fertilizers and raw materials for their production to importing countries.

South Asian countries remain among the most vulnerable to disruptions, as they depend heavily on fertilizer and energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. In particular, India imports significant volumes of urea from producers in the region, while approximately 85% of its domestic urea production depends on liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. As a result, disruptions to energy supplies create additional risks not only for fertilizer imports but also for the operation of Indian fertilizer production facilities.

The situation is particularly difficult in Bangladesh, where four out of five urea plants have been shut down since March 2026 due to LNG shortages. This highlights the significant dependence of nitrogen fertilizer production on stable natural gas supplies. Amid disruptions to international trade and restricted energy supplies, countries dependent on imported raw materials are facing additional challenges in securing sufficient fertilizer supplies for their agricultural sectors.

S&P Global warns that rising fertilizer prices and limited availability could force farmers to reduce application rates or cut planted areas. In particular, its soybean production forecasts for Brazil already take into account the risks of reduced phosphate fertilizer use alongside unfavorable weather conditions. According to S&P Global, the consequences of difficulties in supplying farmers with agricultural inputs could affect global food prices in 2027, as fertilizers are purchased several months before the harvested crops are sold.

Tags: carbamide, Hormuz, fertilizers, ammonia