Sharp increase in Kazakhstan’s linseed exports puts pressure on prices in Ukraine and the EU

According to the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, the country’s linseed exports increased by 17.1% in June compared with May to 83.5 thsd tons. Overall, in the first 10 months of the 2025/26 season, exports surged 2.41 times year-on-year to a record 1.16 mln tons, which is 2.2 times higher than total exports in the entire 2024/25 season.

Compared with the previous season, shipments increased significantly to the following destinations:

• China – 2.5 times to 456.2 thsd tons;
• Belgium – 1.9 times to 330.7 thsd tons;
• Afghanistan – 3.06 times to 116.9 thsd tons;
• Poland – 3.2 times to 102.3 thsd tons;
• Uzbekistan – by 44.3% to 20.2 thsd tons;
• Germany – by 18% to 13.5 thsd tons;
• Czechia – by 1.2%.

The increase in exports to the EU has been driven by higher import tariffs on Russian linseed, which were raised to 20% in 2025 and to 50% in 2026.

In the first 10 months of the 2025/26 season, Belgium and China, the two largest buyers of Kazakh linseed, accounted for 67.8% of total exports, with shares of 28.5% and 39.3%, respectively.

Linseed prices with delivery to EU countries stood at €600–700/t as recently as this spring, but over the past three months they have fallen to €480–520/t DAP Poland/Czechia and €530–570/t DAP Belgium/Germany, depending on quality (yellow or brown linseed, with 40–42% oil content).

Yellow (golden) linseed commands a premium of €20–50/t over brown linseed due to strong demand from the EU food sector.

Ukraine harvested around 66 thsd tons of linseed in 2025/26, the largest crop since the 2017/18 season. About 80%, or 50–55 thsd tons, is expected to be exported, primarily to EU countries including Belgium, Italy, Poland, Germany and France. Demand prices for Ukrainian linseed currently stand at €470–490/t DAP western border.

Following the introduction of tariff restrictions on Russian linseed, the European Union is actively replacing Russian supplies with linseed from Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Canada.

Tags: Ukraine, Kazakhstan, EU