Russia’s wheat area may fall to lowest level since 2014

Russia’s wheat planted area could decline to 25.8 million hectares in 2026, down from 26.9 million hectares a year earlier, according to estimates from agricultural consultancy SovEcon. If confirmed, this would mark the smallest wheat area since 2014, when farmers planted 25.2 million hectares.

Against the backdrop of lower acreage, SovEcon has reduced its 2026/27 wheat production forecast from 90.3 million metric tons to 88.9 million metric tons. The downward revision was mainly driven by a significant reduction in spring wheat plantings.

Spring wheat area is now estimated at 9.9 million hectares, compared with the previous forecast of 10.5 million hectares. Analysts note that this could become the lowest spring wheat area recorded in decades. Meanwhile, winter wheat acreage is expected to remain unchanged at 15.9 million hectares.

Despite the overall decline in production, wheat output in southern Russia — the country’s key export region — is projected to increase to 37.4 million metric tons from 31.9 million metric tons a year earlier. This could boost exportable supplies at the beginning of the new marketing season.

SovEcon also lowered its forecast for total grain and pulse production in the 2026/27 season to 135.2 million metric tons, compared with its previous estimate of 137.4 million metric tons. At the same time, the barley crop forecast was raised to 18.8 million metric tons, while the corn outlook remained unchanged at 14.6 million metric tons.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat production to 88 million metric tons, citing favorable weather conditions and above-average rainfall that improved winter wheat yield prospects. USDA estimates winter wheat production at 64 million metric tons and spring wheat production at 24 million metric tons.

Tags: Russia, wheat, crop forecast