Russia’s share of global sunflower oil exports could fall from 38% to 25%

Russia risks losing a significant share of the global sunflower oil market due to export logistics disruptions in the Azov-Black Sea basin. Its current share of global exports is estimated at around 38%, but a complete blockade of maritime shipments could reduce this figure to 25–28%. Russian exporters could therefore lose up to 13 percentage points of the global market, while maintaining their current positions will depend on restoring stable port operations and transport routes.

The largest buyers of Russian sunflower oil remain India, accounting for approximately 25% of shipments, followed by Iran and Turkey, each with a 22% share. If export terminals remain closed for an extended period, these countries could redirect purchases to alternative suppliers. This creates the risk of not only a temporary decline in Russian exports but also the loss of traditional markets amid intensifying competition.

At the same time, Ukraine is unlikely to benefit from a potential reduction in Russian shipments by significantly increasing its own share of the global sunflower oil market. Ukrainian exporters face similar challenges in the Black Sea region, including threats to commercial shipping, restrictions on port operations, and rising logistics costs. Under these conditions, demand could shift primarily toward suppliers with more reliable export routes.

The negative impact of logistics restrictions on Russia could also extend to other oilseed processing products. In particular, Russia’s share of the global soybean meal market, currently estimated at 30%, could decline to 20–25% if export routes are blocked. This would increase pressure on Russian processors, which depend on access to international markets and uninterrupted transport infrastructure.

Russia’s share of the global rapeseed oil market is estimated at approximately 22%, with more than 90% of its exports destined for China. Such a high concentration of shipments in a single market makes Russian exporters heavily dependent on stable trade and logistics connections with Chinese buyers. Further transport restrictions could weaken Russia’s position in international edible oil and oilseed meal markets and accelerate the shift in demand toward competing suppliers.

Tags: Russia, sunflower oil, export