Russia’s July wheat exports could fall to the lowest level since 2017

Russian consultancy SovEcon has lowered its July wheat export forecast from 2.0 mln tons to 1.5 mln tons. If realized, this would mark Russia’s smallest July wheat exports since 2017, when shipments totaled 1.4 mln tons. By comparison, exports reached 2.1 mln tons in July last year, while the five-year average stands at 3.1 million tonnes.

According to analysts, the main factor behind the decline is navigation restrictions through the Kerch Strait. Weaker demand from Egypt and Turkey, traditionally among the largest buyers of Russian wheat, is also putting additional pressure on exports.

The sharp slowdown in shipments has already affected global wheat prices. Since the beginning of July, wheat futures in Chicago and other major exchanges have risen by around 10% as traders price in tighter export supplies from the Black Sea region.

Earlier this month, SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports by 0.2 mln tons to 46.5 mln tons, expecting larger carryover stocks to partly offset a smaller harvest. At the same time, its estimate for 2025/26 wheat exports was reduced to 46.2 mln tons.

Tags: wheat, Russia, export