Russia’s grain area shrinks by nearly 3 mln ha

Russia’s planted area under grains and pulses declined to 40.8 mln ha in 2026 from 43.7 mln ha a year earlier. This represents a decrease of almost 2.9 mln ha, or 6.6%, which has already prompted analysts to revise their grain production forecasts.

The most significant reduction was recorded for wheat, with the planted area falling by 1.4 mln ha from 26.9 mln ha last year to 25.5 mln ha this year. Rye area declined from 425 thsd ha to 377 thsd ha, while corn for grain decreased from 2.6 mln ha to 2.5 mln ha. At the same time, the barley area increased from 6.65 mln ha to 6.89 mln ha.

Against this backdrop, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) lowered its forecast for Russia’s 2026 wheat crop by 0.5 mln tons to 90 mln tons. The previous estimate stood at 90.5 mln tons. IKAR said the revision was mainly driven by the reduction in planted area.

Analysts also cut the estimate of Russia’s wheat export potential for the 2026/27 marketing year from 45 mln tons to 44.5 mln tons. IKAR stressed that this figure represents the volume potentially available for export rather than a forecast of actual shipments.

Russia’s total grain production forecast was also lowered from 140 mln tons to 138.5 mln tons. The country’s overall grain export potential is now estimated at 60 mln tons, down from the previous forecast of 61.5 mln tons.

Tags: Russia, grain, wheat, sown area, crop forecast