Russian exporters no longer expect normalization as wheat export forecast falls to a multi-year low

Russian exporters no longer expect shipments through the Black and Azov Seas to normalize before 2027. Against this backdrop, SovEcon cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the MY 2026/27 by 4.7 mln tons to 36.7 mln tons, the lowest level since 2021/22.

Compared with last season, Russian wheat exports could decline by around 20% from 46 mln tons. The forecast for total grain exports was also lowered from 49.4 mln to 44.7 mln tons, while barley and corn export estimates were left unchanged at 3 mln tons each.

Shipments through the Black and Azov Seas remain well below normal levels. Several major grain terminals in Novorossiysk and Tuapse continue to operate at reduced capacity, limiting the potential for a rapid recovery in exports.

Russia is therefore expanding alternative routes. Rail shipments in September were estimated at around 1 mln tons, while transshipment through Baltic countries’ ports could rise by 60% to 0.4 mln tons. Shipments through Russian Baltic and Caspian ports and the Volga-Don Canal are also increasing.

However, alternative logistics are still unable to fully compensate for lost Black Sea capacity. According to SovEcon, these routes can add only hundreds of thousands of tons of exports per month, while the missing Black Sea volumes amount to millions of tons, continuing to constrain Russian exports and support global grain prices.

Tags: Black Sea region, wheat, logistics, Russia, grain, grain export