Russian analysts begin cutting wheat crop forecast, though they have yet to cite fuel shortages

Russian analytical agencies have begun gradually revising down their forecasts for the country’s 2026 wheat harvest. The first downgrade came from SovEcon, which lowered its forecast for Russia’s wheat production to 88.3 mln tons, down from the previous 88.9 mln tons.

The consultancy attributed the revision to weaker crop prospects in southern Russia and reduced spring wheat acreage. In particular, the forecast for the Southern and North Caucasus federal districts was cut to 37.1 mln tons from 37.4 mln tons.

According to SovEcon CEO Andrey Sizov, the harvest has started with strong yields across most key southern regions, with the exception of Krasnodar Krai, where yields remain slightly below average. He added that results could improve as harvesting expands to higher-yielding fields.

Despite lowering its wheat forecast, SovEcon raised its outlook for other crops. The barley harvest forecast was increased to 19.5 mln tons from 18.8 mln tons, while the corn crop estimate was raised to 15.1 mln tons from 14.6 mln tons. The overall grain and pulse harvest forecast remained virtually unchanged at 135.3 mln tons.

Additional signals for the market came from recent comments by Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut. According to her, more than 21 mln tons of grain had been harvested by mid-July, although the harvest campaign is running more than 2.5 mln ha behind last year’s pace due to unfavorable weather. While southern regions are expected to deliver good yields thanks to adequate moisture, lower yields are anticipated in Siberia, particularly in Altai Krai, because of prolonged heat and a lack of rainfall.

At the same time, Russian analysts and government officials have not yet linked the lower crop forecasts to the fuel crisis that has intensified in the country’s agricultural regions in recent weeks. Earlier, the Russian government began preparing a diesel import subsidy program to address fuel shortages during the harvest campaign. If farms continue to face difficulties securing fuel, this could become another factor driving further downward revisions to Russia’s wheat production forecast.