Russia-Ukraine tensions bring wheat futures higher

россия украина

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures jumped 3.2% on Tuesday, Jan. 18., supported by concerns about rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine as well as cold weather that could threaten the crop in dry parts of the United States.

“If there is a problem between Russia and Ukraine, it could be very disruptive to the world wheat trade,” said Mark Gold, managing partner at Top Third Ag Marketing.

The most active CBOT wheat contract notched its biggest daily gain since Oct. 1.

It is noted that the gains in wheat pulled corn higher, but soybeans fell on forecasts for much-needed rain in key growing areas of Brazil and Argentina.

A strong export report from the U.S. Agriculture Department also helped support wheat.

The USDA in its January report left unaltered its projections for wheat production and export from Ukraine in 2021/22.

The USDA said that weekly export inspections of wheat totalled 369,188 t, up from 234,356 t the prior week and near the high end of market forecasts.

Additionally, Turkey’s state grain board TMO provisionally purchased some 335,000 t of wheat in an international tender, traders told Reuters.

CBOT March soft red winter wheat futures settled up 27-1/2 cents at USD 7.69 a bushel.

As of Jan. 10, wheat export from Ukraine made up 16.1 mln t, 27% up YoY.

As a reminder, wheat export from Ukraine in 2021/22 was limited to 25.3 mln t. The Memorandum of Understanding was signed by the Agrarian Ministry and grain market participants. The Government also considers milling wheat export from the country. The decision is reported to be taken in January.

 

Latifundist

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