Russia may push Ukraine into the corn market in Turkey

Turkey’s role as one of the main buyers of Ukrainian corn in the MY 2025/26 has come under question. At the Trend&Hedge Club meeting, market participants noted that, against the backdrop of increasing corn production in Russia, its share in the Turkish market may increase, reducing Ukraine’s presence. Turkish demand is currently maintained, and prices for deliveries with shipment in November-December are $230-232/t CIF Marmara, while in early August they did not exceed $225/t, which is explained by the increase in corn prices on the domestic market of Turkey.

At the same time, Ukrainian suppliers maintain prices at $234-236/t CIF Marmara, but trade remains sluggish due to the lack of new import quotas with reduced or zero duties. Traders expect prices to decline after a large harvest from Ukraine enters the market, which may affect sales volumes in the second half of the season.

The situation is also complicated by the projected decline in import demand. The USDA estimates that Turkey will import about 3.3 million tons of corn in the 2025/26, compared to 5.7 million tons a year earlier, while production will increase from 7.1 to 7.9 million tons. Local experts, including Koray Tuysüzoğlu, CEO of Erser Group, predict production at 8.2 million tons and imports of about 3 million tons, noting that the main Konya region has not yet started harvesting, and losses are expected to be minimal.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, corn, prices