Romania maintains strong crop prospects despite drought

Romania remains one of the few European Union countries where 2026 grain and oilseed crop prospects continue to look relatively favorable. According to the European Commission’s MARS crop monitoring service, production is expected to remain above the long-term average despite dry conditions, thanks to adequate soil moisture built up after rainfall in the first half of June.

MARS forecasts Romania’s average wheat yield at 5.31 t/ha. While this is slightly below the 5.65 t/ha recorded in 2025, it remains well above the five-year average of 4.55 t/ha. Similar trends are expected for winter barley, with yields projected at 5.26 t/ha, and rapeseed at 3.08 t/ha, both exceeding their long-term averages.

Spring crops remain the most vulnerable. Corn and sunflower continue to face pressure from limited soil moisture and high temperatures, but their expected yields are still higher than last year’s results. Corn yield is forecast at 4.03 t/ha, compared with 3.94 t/ha a year earlier, while sunflower is expected to reach 1.91 t/ha, up from 1.71 t/ha.

Unlike Romania, overall crop prospects across the European Union have deteriorated. Heat waves and prolonged dry weather in Western and Central Europe have prompted MARS to lower its yield forecasts for key crops. Average EU soft wheat yield has been revised down to 5.88 t/ha from 6.00 t/ha, while the rapeseed forecast has been reduced to 3.14 t/ha from 3.18 t/ha.

Analysts note that as crop prospects weaken across much of the EU, Romania remains one of the region’s most resilient grain and oilseed producers. However, the final outcome of the season will largely depend on weather conditions during August and early autumn, when the yield potential of spring crops will be determined.