Rising tensions in global phosphate markets in the near term

Moroccan company OCP Group has announced early maintenance of part of its fertilizer production facilities, a move that could reduce global phosphate supplies. The decision comes at a time when markets are already under pressure due to raw material shortages and geopolitical disruptions.

The maintenance is set to begin this week and may affect around 30% of the company’s production capacity during the second quarter. Given OCP’s scale, even a temporary output reduction could significantly impact the global supply-demand balance.

Morocco remains one of the world’s leading exporters of phosphate fertilizers. In 2025, the country exported approximately 4.40 million tonnes of DAP, 2.71 million tonnes of MAP, and 2.98 million tonnes of TSP, underscoring its critical role in global agriculture.

Any decline in production could influence international prices and availability, as OCP is a dominant player in the phosphate market. Market participants are already anticipating increased volatility and potential price rises in the coming months.

The early maintenance is partly attributed to constraints in the supply of key inputs such as sulfur and ammonia. Logistical disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, along with adverse weather conditions that affected port operations earlier this year, have further complicated production and export logistics.

Tags: fertilizers, Morocco