Rising rice supplies in Japan could curb wheat and corn demand

Rice could regain market share from wheat in Japan in 2026/27 as domestic production recovers and prices are expected to ease. FAS USDA forecasts rice output at 7.37 mln tons, up by around 100 thsd tons year on year.

Rice consumption is projected to rise 7% to 7.9 mln tons in 2026/27. Demand is expected to benefit from lower prices following the historic highs of 2024–2025, as well as Japan’s relatively high level of self-sufficiency in rice.

FAS said higher rice availability could affect not only food use but also the feed market. Larger rice supplies may reduce consumption of feed corn and wheat, depending on government decisions on managing private stocks and replenishing state reserves.

With domestic supplies stabilizing, Japan is expected to import only the minimum market access volume of rice. Meanwhile, the weaker yen and higher prices for imported food products in recent years have already helped support domestic rice demand.

Japan’s rice exports are forecast to increase 22% to 80 thsd tons in 2026/27. Growth is expected to be driven by a recovery in food aid shipments from government stocks and continued commercial sales.

Tags: corn, rice, wheat, Japan