Record Paris rapeseed prices support the Ukrainian market

Export restrictions caused by targeted Russian attacks on civilian vessels calling at Ukrainian ports have virtually halted Ukraine’s seaborne rapeseed exports. This has become an additional driver of speculative gains in rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Winnipeg, alongside rising crude oil prices.

August rapeseed futures on Euronext in Paris climbed another 2.4% to €557.25/t, or $635/t (+5.6% over the week and +10.5% over the month). November futures gained 1.6% to €559/t, the highest level since July 25, 2024.

France’s rapeseed harvest is expected to remain close to last year’s level, while Germany’s production is forecast to increase by 1.5% to 4.03 mln tons due to larger planted area. As a result, rapeseed supplies in the EU remain ample despite the rally in exchange-traded prices.

At the same time, physical rapeseed prices for August-September deliveries to crushing plants have weakened because of abundant supplies, particularly from Ukrainian sellers who are increasingly redirecting exports by truck and rail through the western border.

Currently, rapeseed prices for August delivery to German crushing plants are €26/t below the Matif futures price, September deliveries are €20/t below, and December deliveries are €6/t below the futures price for rapeseed with 40% oil content.

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, November canola futures rose 1.9% to CAD 810/t, or $575/t (+2.5% over the week and +8.7% over the month), supported by stronger demand.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission, rapeseed exports totaled 305 thsd tons during July 6-12, up sharply from 52.5 thsd tons a week earlier. Cumulative exports in the 2025/26 marketing year reached 8.56 mln tons, 7.3% below last year’s pace but already exceeding Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s full-season forecast of 8.4 mln tons.

Canada’s canola market could once again face pressure from weaker domestic demand and lower prices after U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated 50% tariffs on selected Canadian goods worth around $20 bln out of roughly $380 bln in annual imports, potentially reigniting the trade dispute between the two countries.

In Ukraine, export bid prices for rapeseed continue to receive support from the rally in Paris, particularly at the western border, where prices have increased by €10/t to €485-500/t, or $565-575/t, delivered to terminals.

Demand at Black Sea ports has weakened, leaving prices at $550-565/t (42% oil content), or UAH 25,500-26,000/t delivered to ports. Some traders have suspended purchases altogether because of intensified attacks on ports and merchant vessels.

Domestic crushers continue to lower procurement prices, cutting them by another UAH 500/t to UAH 23,700-25,000/t ($470-490/t excluding VAT) delivered to processing plants due to limited opportunities for exporting vegetable oil and meal.

Growing rapeseed supplies and continued uncertainty surrounding exports are expected to encourage higher domestic processing volumes in Ukraine, even at the expense of farmers’ margins, and will likely lead to a further decline in Ukraine’s rapeseed exports during the MY 2026/27.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, prices, France, rapeseed