Record global rapeseed crop fails to halt price growth

Global rapeseed production in 2026/27 could reach a record 98.09 mln t, up 2.41 mln t from the previous season. However, the increase in supply has so far failed to push prices lower: ICE canola futures have traded above CAD 800/t, while rapeseed oil futures in China reached a 3.5-year high.

The increase in global production is being driven primarily by Canada and the Black Sea region, while Australia is expected to see a decline. Higher raw material supplies are also expected to boost global rapeseed oil production to a new record.

Strong demand for rapeseed oil from the biofuel sector remains one of the key factors supporting prices. Canadian rapeseed processing is forecast to rise by 8% y/y to 13.7 mln t in 2026/27, while rapeseed oil exports could reach a record 4 mln t. Demand is also supported by US biofuel policy and government incentives for biofuel production in Canada.

Weather risks in Australia are providing additional support to the market. Rapeseed area has declined, while heat and below-normal rainfall are weighing on crop prospects. Production is estimated at 6.184 mln t, almost 20% below last year, with September remaining a critical period for crop development.

Thus, record global supply has so far been insufficient to reverse the price trend amid strong biofuel demand, weather concerns and geopolitical risks. However, downward pressure could strengthen toward the end of the year as Canada’s new crop enters the market and export supplies increase.

Tags: prices, Canada, Black Sea region, rapeseed, Australia, EU