Record fertilizer stocks could strengthen India’s position in import tenders

India’s fertilizer stocks reached 17.01 mln tons at the start of the 2026/27 rabi season, up 38% y/y and marking the highest level in two years. The larger buffer ahead of winter sowing reduces the risk of shortages and could give India more flexibility in import tenders.

Urea stocks posted the strongest increase, rising 54.3% to 8.33 mln tons. DAP inventories grew by about 9% to 3.03 mln tons, while combined NPK and NPKS stocks increased 36% to 5.65 mln tons.

The large urea cushion is particularly important ahead of the close of Indian Potash Limited’s 1.7 mln ton tender. Strong domestic inventories could reduce pressure on India and allow importers to resist higher-priced offers.

The phosphate segment remains less comfortable, however. DAP stocks posted only a modest increase, while India continues to rely heavily on imports to meet demand from wheat, mustard and gram crops planted during the rabi season.

Building these inventories also comes at a high fiscal cost. Government officials estimate that fertilizer subsidies could exceed 3 trillion rupees, or around $31.2 bln, in the current fiscal year, compared with a budgeted 1.71 trillion rupees. The next signals will come from the tender results and fertilizer sales in October.

Tags: tender, India, imports, fertilizers